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4 NFL DFS Stud Picks for Week 11

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

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4 NFL DFS Stud Picks for Week 11

Hitting on high-salary players is the first step to having success in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

These players take up the biggest chunk of your salary cap, and they need to deliver quality performances for your lineup to reach its ceiling.

With some help from our NFL DFS projections, here are four studs to target on this week's main slate, which starts at 1 p.m. ET.

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL DFS Stud Plays for Week 11

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Salary: ($8,800)

With Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels off the main slate, we're left to pick between Lamar Jackson ($9,000) and Josh Allen as our high-salary quarterbacks this week. Lamar has the tougher matchup (against a Steelers side he's traditionally struggled against), so I'm happy to scoop up Josh Allen at a discounted salary.

Allen has, again, been tremendous this season. He's cleared 20 FanDuel points in five straight games despite scoring only 2 rushing touchdowns in that stretch, and the Buffalo Bills have let him air it out more as the season's progressed. From Weeks 1-6, Buffalo had a raw pass rate of 50.5% and a -4.2% pass rate over expectation (PROE). From Weeks 7-10, their raw pass rate has jumped to 59.5%, and their PROE is up to +4.5%.

Consequently, Allen has averaged 35.8 pass attempts and 280.3 passing yards over the last four games.

Granted, Buffalo's schedule hasn't been very tough the last few weeks, and they draw the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. But KC has quietly taken a step back against the pass, dipping to 19th in schedule-adjusted pass defense and 21st in FanDuel points allowed to quarterbacks. Over the past three games, they've given up the second-most passing EPA per play. On the season, opposing teams have passed at the seventh-highest clip against the Chiefs.

This game carries one of the highest totals on the slate, too. Coupled with a tight spread and a fast pace, Chiefs-Bills could end up being the top game environment in Week 11.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 17 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

With Allen playing well, the Bills passing more, and KC struggling to defend the air, Allen is the clear QB1 in Week 11, even at an $8,800 salary.

De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Salary: ($8,700)

It's a bit unfortunate that the Miami Dolphins played on Monday night last week after Week 11 salaries were already set. That's because we likely would've gotten a discount on several Dolphins, De'Von Achane included.

Achane could muster up only 52 scrimmage yards and 7.7 FanDuel points in the win -- his lowest marks with Tua Tagovailoa active this season.

But the utilization was still rock-solid. Achane saw 22 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and a 70% snap rate, finishing second on the 'Fins with an 18% target share. He was on the field for all three of Miami's red zone plays, but short-yardage touchdowns to Tyreek Hill and Malik Washington kept him out of the end zone for first time in five Tua starts.

Still, Achane's heavy usage suggests he shouldn't stay down long. In his previous four games with Tua active, Achane went for 28.1, 23.7, 26.0, and 19.5 FanDuel points.

With the Las Vegas Raiders in town on Sunday, I like Achane to get back on track. And while we do have several high salary running backs to choose from this week, Achane's combination of salary, utilization, and matchup makes him my favorite back over $8,000.

The Raiders are fresh off a bye heading into Week 11, but I don't think any number of off weeks could fix this defense. Vegas sits at 21st in schedule-adjusted run defense, and they've permitted the seventh-most FanDuel points to opposing running backs. They've let up the 10th-most yards per carry, 3rd-most yards over expectation per carry, and 6th-highest target rate to the position.

That sets Achane up to contribute on the ground and through the air, allowing him one of the highest floors on the week. Miami has the slate's third-highest implied team total (26.0), too, offering the kind of upside we need to warrant allocating this much of salary to a running back.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Salary: ($8,300)

There are several intriguing DFS options in this Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers game. Though the spread (49ers -6.5) is a bit wider than we'd like, the over/under (48.5) is tied for the highest on the main slate.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 17 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

That should make this a pretty popular game to stack, but Deebo Samuel could fly under the radar with Christian McCaffrey ($9,800) back and both Jauan Jennings ($6,200) and Ricky Pearsall ($5,800) looking like strong point-per-dollar options, according to our NFL DFS projections.

Even so, on a slate lacking a surefire stud wide receiver, Deebo has a lot of appeal at $8,300. Samuel has exceeded 11 FanDuel points only once in his last five games, but he's still seen encouraging utilization. He's seen a 22% target share in two games without Brandon Aiyuk, ranking third on the Niners in targets per route rate.

That's not elite usage, but it's also a small sample. In one game without Aiyuk -- but with CMC and George Kittle -- last season, Samuel scored 22.1 FanDuel points thanks to 131 total yards and a 35.3% target share. He enjoyed a 42.9% red zone target share and saw a red zone rush attempt in that one.

So, we've seen Deebo pop sans Aiyuk, and he already torched this Seattle defense this season, even with Aiyuk active. Samuel had his best game of the season when these sides squared off in Week 6, catching 3 of 5 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown. He also added 15 yards via 4 rush attempts.

And nothing about Seattle's defense suggests they're more equipped to deal with Samuel this time around. They're just 16th in adjusted pass defense and have been a top-10 fantasy matchup for WRs this season. In four games since that first Niners-Seahawks matchup, Seattle has permitted the highest target rate and seventh-most yards per route run to opposing receivers.

As such, Deebo makes for a rock-solid WR1 on a slack where the usual top wideouts have suboptimal matchups.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

FanDuel Salary: ($6,600)

The top tier of tight end has stabilized over the last few weeks, so we quietly have several studs to consider this week. But with Jameis Winston back under center in an indoor game this week, it's hard not to like David Njoku at $6,600.

Njoku has appeared in 14 games where Deshaun Watson played fewer than 50% of snaps over the last two seasons. In those games, Njoku averaged 12.1 FanDuel points per game via a 23% target share. He put up 5.8 receptions and 62.3 yards per game in those contests, scoring 7 touchdowns off a 27% red zone target share.

In Winston's first two starts, Njoku caught five receptions off seven targets in both games. He was quiet in their most recent matchup, but that came against a stingy Los Angeles Chargers defense. This week's date with the New Orleans Saints should be much easier.

The Saints enter Week 11 ranked 14th in adjusted pass defense, but they've ceded a ton of volume to the tight end position. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-highest target rate and sixth-most yards per route run to tight ends. They're below-average in FanDuel points allowed to the position, too.

Consequently, we should vault Njoku up near the top of our tight end rankings this week. He's my favorite tight end to allocate substantial salary toward in Week 11.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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