4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 5

When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.

This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 5

Kenneth Walker III vs. Giants Rush Defense

The Seattle Seahawks are first in pass rate over expectation and are fresh off a shootout against the Detroit Lions where the two teams combined for 71 points and Geno Smith attempted a whopping 56 passes while playing from behind for virtually the entire game.

Although it's certainly possible the Seahawks throw all over a middle-of-the-pack New York Giants defense, we're much less likely to have a high-scoring slugfest this time around. The Seahawks come in as 6.5-point home favorites in a game with a modest 43.5 over/under, and the potential absence of the Giants' star rookie Malik Nabers (concussion protocol) would further diminish New York's chances of putting up a fight.

With that in mind, this could lead to a game environment that benefits running back Kenneth Walker III ($7,400) the most.

In his two healthy games, Walker has logged 26 and 22 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) while averaging a 63.0% snap rate. He's averaged 112.5 scrimmage yards and hogged red zone carries (80.0%), helping him to 20.9 and 31.6 FanDuel points. Given that the latter score came in last week's pass-heavy contest, Walker is showing promising usage regardless of game script.

But the most likely scenario is that the Seahawks will be able to get out to an early lead and then let their featured back go to work. Walker's game with 26 adjusted opportunities came in a 6-point win over the Denver Broncos, and backup Zach Charbonnet also totaled 26 adjusted opportunities when Walker was sidelined in a blowout victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 3.

Walker also has just the 10th-highest salary among running backs, further making him an appealing play on Sunday.

Joe Mixon vs. Bills Rush Defense

We'll have to wait and see if Joe Mixon ($8,000) is active, but considering he managed a limited practice last Friday and was a game-time decision in Week 4 before being ruled out, he should be trending toward playing against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

If that ends up being the case, we can take advantage of rostering Mixon against a defense that was just lit up by Derrick Henry for 37.4 FanDuel points behind 209 scrimmage yards and a pair of TDs. Buffalo is proving to be perhaps the NFL's most drastic run funnel defense, ranking 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense while boasting the 2nd-best adjusted pass D, per numberFire's metrics.

The Houston Texans have already demonstrated they're perfectly content to give Mixon a hefty workload when the situation warrants it. When we last saw a full game for Mixon in Week 1, he racked up 178 scrimmage yards and a touchdown off 36 adjusted opportunities. The Texans are just 1.5-point underdogs at home, so it's hard to see them falling into a deep hole that forces them to abandon the run.

Mixon's status will need to be closely monitored as he reportedly sat out practice on Wednesday. But if he's able to ramp things up by the end of the week and isn't expected to be on any snap count, he should be strongly considered in the perfect spot to pick up where he left off.

Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk vs. Colts Pass Defense

The 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars have been a mess this year, but with the bye weeks kicking in, they actually have one of the slate's better implied team totals (24.5) as slight home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. Given that the Colts are 25th in adjusted pass defense, this could be a spot to dip into the Jags' passing attack.

Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,300) has quietly scored the 15th-most FanDuel points among wideouts through four weeks, and he leads all Jaguars pass-catchers by a wide margin in yards per route run (2.50). While his 21.3% target share and 27.0% air yards share don't leap off the page, he's seen 9 targets in back-to-back weeks, and half of them have been downfield looks (10+ air yards).

Christian Kirk ($6,100) was invisible over the first two weeks, but that's changed dramatically after logging 10 and 12 targets over the last two. Despite his early duds, Kirk leads the team in both target share (23.8%) and air yards share (29.9%), and he's tied for the highest route rate (80.4%).

Indianapolis is allowing the seventh-most FanDuel points per target to WRs, further enhancing the outlooks for Thomas and Kirk.

This game could have sneaky shootout potential, too, regardless of whether Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco starts for Indianapolis. The Colts like to play at a fast tempo and will be facing a Jaguars team that ranks 29th in adjusted total defense, which will hopefully lead to a back-and-forth affair. According to our Brandon Gdula, this matchup projects as the week's fourth-fastest in pace.

Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy vs. Commanders Pass Defense

Rostering anyone in this Cleveland Browns offense isn't for the faint of heart as long as Deshaun Watson is manning this quickly sinking ship, but if ever there was a time to take a chance on this unit, it's this week against the Washington Commanders.

Washington is showing signs of being a fantastic matchup to attack week in and week out, ranking 32nd in both adjusted total defense and adjusted pass defense. But what makes them even more enticing is the fact rookie Jayden Daniels is already looking like a rising star, which has the Commanders humming along as the top adjusted offense, as well.

While Daniels will surely face some bumps along the way, this team should find itself in plenty of high-scoring contests throughout the year, which is exactly what we want in NFL DFS.

This tilt is showing a less thrilling 43.5-point total, but there's absolutely a path toward the over if Watson can be even half-decent. Despite their inefficiencies, the Browns are averaging the seventh-most plays per game due to ranking fourth in past rate over expectation and fifth in no-huddle rate (excluding two-minute drills). Overall, this has this game ranking as the week's fifth-best in both pace and pass rate, per Gdula.

The Commanders have allowed the most FanDuel points per target to WRs, opening the door for strong outings from Amari Cooper ($6,200) and Jerry Jeudy ($5,900), specifically.

Cooper has been a bust in three of four games, but the one good week went for 24.1 FanDuel points, so at least there's a path to a spike week. His volume has been consistently high after logging 8, 9, 12, and 8 targets, and he leads the team with a 25.9% target share, 44.5% air yards share, and 86.8% route rate.

Jeudy's second on the team in route rate (82.4%), and he's been the far more efficient pass-catcher compared to Cooper in yards per route run (1.31 vs. 0.94). While he hasn't had a ceiling game yet, he's scored between 9.8 and 10.2 FanDuel points in three of the four weeks, and he's recorded a rock-solid 21.0% target share and 34.2% air yards share.

I like the idea of rostering one of these two as a bring-back option when rolling with Daniels at QB (and potentially stacking Washington) in the hopes this games provides a more lush fantasy-scoring environment than expected.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.