3 NBA Best Bets for Monday 11/4/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
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Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report unless otherwise specified.
Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
Lakers -7.5 (-110)
Well, if it isn't a rare spot to sell the Detroit Pistons from a vantage point.
Detroit blew out the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday, creating a back-to-back situation at home tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers. A rest disadvantage is the opposite of what the Motors needed in this spot.
L.A. is 4-2 outside of forgivable road losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns. They've just won all four of those games by seven or fewer points having yet to be handed a layup like the Pistons, who are 22nd in raw net rating (-5.4 NRTG).
While the Lakers are notorious for not covering large spreads as a whole, they won each of last season's meetings with Detroit by at least 14 points, and neither of those meetings came on a back-to-back. This is unnerving, but the Purple and Gold should be closer to double-digit favorites here. numberFire puts this game's projected margin at 10.3 points.
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat
Heat Moneyline (-108)
This is a brutal travel stretch for the Sacramento Kings, which already took its toll with an inexplicable loss to the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. A quality Miami Heat squad can extend that streak to two.
With Miami at home, these are two very close teams. When adjusting for early-season schedules, Dunks and Threes gives Sacramento a +1.4 adjusted NRTG (aNRTG) to Miami's +0.6.
However, not only are the Kings on the road, they're at the final stop of an enormous road trip that went through Utah, Atlanta, and Canada in that order since last Tuesday. Someone better have a frequent flier program.
It's also worth mentioning with both of these teams at relative full strength that the Heat won last year's head-to-head meetings by an average of 10.0 points. Both came after Miami's acquisition of Terry Rozier, but Sacramento adding DeMar DeRozan in the offseason closes the gap a bit.
nF projects Miami to win 62.1% of the time in this spot. It's a good one to fade the public with 66% of the bets on the Kings at FanDuel Sportsbook tonight.
Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Under 226.5 Points (-110)
Total Points
The Minnesota Timberwolves' defense hasn't been quite up to last year's standard to begin the season, but this seems like a spot where they can rebound.
Schedule has a lot to do with Minnesota's downfall thus far. Dunks and Threes' adjusted defensive rating (aDRTG) still puts the Timberwolves as the fourth-best D in the NBA (110.0). Level of competition also has helped the Charlotte Hornets secure a top-10 raw offensive rating (ORTG) when they're just 21st adjusting for schedule (110.9).
These are both bottom-11 teams in pace. They can quickly dive toward an under if shots aren't falling.
Injuries are a bit of a wild card in this one, which is why I'm waiting to bet it. Charlotte's Brandon Miller (glute) and Minnesota's Rudy Gobert (ankle) are both questionable. The best case for the under would be a Miller absence with Gobert playing; the Wolves have a 113.2 DRTG when the four-time DPOY is on the floor.
Nonetheless, this number should still be fine if Miller plays and Gobert sits. numberFire projects this game's total at 213.5 points with both factored in as playing. The total will likely rise if that worst-case scenario comes to fruition, though.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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