4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 16

When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.

This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 16

James Conner vs. Panthers Rush Defense

James Conner ($8,400) has the fifth-highest salary among running backs, so we aren't exactly rostering his services at a discount. But he's coming off back-to-back games with 20+ FanDuel points and has a great chance of keeping up that streak in a plum spot against the Carolina Panthers.

Over those last two outings, Conner has averaged 26 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 130 scrimmage yards with a 73.2% snap rate. His usage near the goal line in that sample has been superb, as well, with a 95.7% red zone snap rate, 83.3% red zone rush share, and 30.0% red zone target share.

The Arizona Cardinals may be on the road, but they still come in showing a solid implied team total (25.5) as 4.5-point favorites against the Panthers.

Carolina has been a team we've attack all season, and this is another great opportunity to do so. They sit 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense and have given up the most FanDuel points per game to running backs.

In our NFL DFS projections, Conner projects for the fifth-most FanDuel points at his position.

Chuba Hubbard vs. Cardinals Rush Defense

Chuba Hubbard ($7,100) got a shout in this piece last week, and while he ultimately flopped against the Dallas Cowboys with 49 scoreless scrimmage yards, we shouldn't hesitate to go back to the well in another plus matchup against the aforementioned Cardinals.

Despite a negative game script and rough play from Bryce Young (four turnovers), Hubbard's usage was encouraging under the circumstances, as he logged a sky-high 94% snap rate and 100% red zone snap rate. We've now seen Hubbard play nearly every snap in two games with Jonathon Brooks out of the picture, and while that resulted in just 18 adjusted opportunities in Week 15, that playing time led to 36 adjusted opportunities in Week 14.

The Panthers are technically home underdogs, but this team had hung tough with the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Philadelphia Eagles in the three previous games, so it isn't outlandish to think they can get back on track and stay competitive versus Arizona.

The Cardinals are just 27th in adjusted rush defense, so this is a quality bounce-back spot for Hubbard. Following last week's poor fantasy outing, his salary has also dipped, which is an added bonus. Hubbard projects as the sixth-best value among running backs.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Raiders Pass Defense

Relying on Mac Jones in a low-total game isn't for the faint of heart, but Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,300) has been seeing elite usage and could be worth taking a chance on versus the Las Vegas Raiders.

In five games with Mac playing the majority of QB snaps, Thomas has logged a 28.0% target share, 38.4% air yards share, 37.5% red zone target share, and 83.3% end zone target share.

Even better, we've really seen his role take off over the past two games with a 35.6% target share, 48.4% air yards share, 62.5% red zone target share, and 100.0% end zone target share.

Thomas has scored double-digit FanDuel points in four straight and is coming off his best fantasy performance after nabbing 10-of-14 targets for 105 yards and 2 TDs on his way to 30.5 points. With tight end Brenton Strange potentially being his main competition for targets the rest of the way, there's little reason to think Thomas' high-volume workload will change down the stretch.

In a tank bowl between two teams vying for a high draft pick, this matchup has an ugly 40.5 total, so the potential downside of rostering anyone is painfully apparent.

The good news is Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O'Connell is trending toward playing, which should increase the chances of a more fantasy-friendly game environment. While O'Connell is far from perfect, he did throw for 300+ yards in a near-upset of the Chiefs in Week 13, so he ought to be able to move the ball versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Further, there are some indications this game could go over its total.

Jacksonville has upped its no-huddle rate lately, now owning the ninth-highest mark this season, which could help quicken pace of play. Meanwhile, Vegas ranks fifth in pass rate plus pass rate over expectation and just lost their most effective rusher, Sincere McCormick, to injured reserve, so we should expect them to air it out, further helping overall play volume.

And, perhaps most important of all, these are two poor defenses. The Jaguars rank 32nd in adjusted total defense and 31st in pressure rate; the Raiders are 28th in adjusted pass defense, and star edge rusher Maxx Crosby is out for the year.

Put it all together and this matchup might have more fantasy potential than expected, and Thomas has both the role and matchup to take advantage.

Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Bears Rush Defense

Following David Montgomery's likely season-ending injury, Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300) isn't sneaking by anyone as the featured back in this high-powered Detroit Lions going forward. But when you throw in a matchup against the Chicago Bears, this might one of those cases where we just roll with the chalk and lock in Gibbs for most of our lineups.

Not only is Detroit tied for the slate's second-highest implied team total (27.0) as road favorites, but Chicago is 21st in adjusted rush defense and has coughed up the fourth-most FanDuel points to RBs.

As a pair, Gibbs and Montgomery have averaged a combined 38.9 adjusted opportunities per game this season with an 87.8% red zone rush share and 19.5% red zone target share. While we shouldn't assume Gibbs inherits all of that volume -- backup Craig Reynolds should have an increased role -- it's pretty clear that his ceiling could be massive going forward, and he was averaging 103.0 scrimmage yards per game and 18.0 FanDuel points per game already in a split role.

Gibbs could end up being a steal at his salary, as well. He's projected for the most FanDuel points at running back despite having the sixth-highest salary. In fact, he comes away as the main slate's very best point-per-dollar value among non-quarterbacks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.