4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 10
When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.
This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?
All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 10
Breece Hall vs. Cardinals Rush Defense
Following a switch to Todd Downing calling offensive plays for the New York Jets, Breece Hall ($8,200) scored 20+ FanDuel points in Weeks 6 and 7, but he's been somewhat underwhelming over his last two games, posting 9.4 and 9.5 points.
This has coincided with Hall's usage trending somewhat in the wrong direction. During this stretch, he's logged 30, 30, 22, and 23 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) alongside snap rates of 86.4%, 81.8%, 73.7%, and 76.4%. Likewise, he's gone from 169 and 141 scrimmage yards in those first two games to 89 and 85 in the last two.
While the dip is a slight concern, it's still a solid workload, and a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals' lackluster defense could help him get back to putting up gaudy numbers. Arizona hasn't been great defending the run this season, ranking 28th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics, and that's helped RBs score the 9th-most FanDuel points per game against them.
Additionally, despite the minor downtick in volume for Hall, it's not like backup RB Braelon Allen has been a major factor. While Allen has seen a bump in snaps over the past two games and even scored a touchdown in Week 8, he most recently recorded just six adjusted opportunities and nine scrimmage yards in Week 9.
And speaking of TDs, more should be coming Hall's way despite scoring just once since Downing took over play calling. When accounting for both carries and targets in the red zone, Breece has a team-high 32.4% RZ opportunity share, and even if we narrow that down to the three games with Davante Adams, Hall's share bumps up to 34.8%. While it would be great to see him get into the 40-50% range like some other backs, this is still a mark that should lead to better results.
If Hall finds success against Arizona -- and he should -- it's quite possible he sees his volume bump back up to what we saw a few weeks back, and that's definitely worth chasing at a fairly reasonable salary. Per our NFL DFS projections, Breece is one of the main slate's better point-per-dollar running backs.
Aaron Jones vs. Jaguars Rush Defense
Aaron Jones ($7,900) continues to enjoy a fantastic role in the Minnesota Vikings' offense, but it hasn't resulted in as many spike weeks as we would like -- at least so far anyway.
The Vikings are up against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that's been diced up by opposing passing attacks this season and ranks 32nd in adjusted pass defense.
But the Jags are also just 17th in adjusted rush defense and have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to RBs. A big part of why running backs are so successful versus Jacksonville is because that poor pass D also applies to them, as the Jaguars cough up the third-most FanDuel points per target to RBs.
All this is to say that this is a juicy matchup for Jones, a back who can do damage via the ground game or through the air.
In his seven healthy games, he's averaging 16.9 carries and 4.0 targets per game (24.9 adjusted opportunities), converting those chances into 108.1 scrimmage yards per game. Despite scoring just three touchdowns all season, he boasts a 47.6% RZ opportunity share, so his lack of scores isn't reflective of his fantasy-friendly usage.
Our model sees Jones as the second-best point-per-dollar value at running back this week.
George Pickens vs. Commanders Pass Defense
The Pittsburgh Steelers-Washington Commanders game features a pair of offenses that like to play fast with both teams ranking inside the top 10 in adjusted pace, per our Brandon Gdula. The end result is a matchup that projects to be the week's second-best in overall pace, so this could have more shootout possibilities than this 45.5 over/under might suggest.
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While Washington's defense has gotten good results against some soft opponents this season, they're just 26th in adjusted total defense and 23rd in adjusted pass defense, which is probably a better indication of their level. They did bolster their secondary by trading for Marshon Lattimore, but he sat out Week 9 with a hamstring injury and missed practice on Wednesday, so it's fair to wonder if he'll even be active this weekend.
This matchup opens the door for George Pickens ($7,000) to have a fruitful fantasy outing. In two games with Russell Wilson under center, Pickens has posted a 25.9% target share, 42.1% air yards share, and 40.0% red zone target share while averaging 3.5 downfield targets (10+ air yards). He remains Pittsburgh's clear top option, and the newly acquired Mike Williams from the Jets is more likely to eat into the volume of the team's secondary pass catchers.
Pickens also shows well in our projections, coming in as the third-best value among wide receivers.
Khalil Shakir vs. Colts Pass Defense
As a low-aDOT receiver, Khalil Shakir ($6,200) isn't the most exciting play in half-PPR formats, but between his modest salary, the matchup, recent usage, and injuries around him, Shakir could come through for us versus the Indianapolis Colts.
It hasn't been easy to predict where the targets are going in this Buffalo Bills offense this year, and adding Amari Cooper to the mix a few weeks back has further complicated things. However, Keon Coleman has a multi-week wrist injury, and Cooper has been limited in practice after sitting out Week 9. Particularly if Cooper is ultimately ruled out, we could have a much more concentrated target tree in Week 10.
This coincides with Shakir showing much promising volume since recovering from a recent ankle issue. Over the last three games, he's earned a team-high 24.0% target share, and despite an underwhelming 1.9% air yards share, he's also managed a robust 2.92 yards per route run. This bodes well for him against a Colts team that's 25th in adjusted pass defense.
This matchup is also showing one of the slate's better totals (47.5) and will be played indoors at Indianapolis, potentially giving us an appealing fantasy-scoring environment all around.
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As of this writing, our model is still giving partial projections for both Coleman and Cooper, yet Shakir is already being pegged as the second-best value among wideouts under $7,000.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.