4 Nations Face-Off: Best Bets and Player Props for USA vs. Sweden

The USA and Sweden put a stamp on what’s been a thrilling round-robin in the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off.

We won’t know it until the matinee between Canada and Finland wraps up, but this could be a hugely important contest. Sweden is eliminated from contention if either Canada or Finland wins in regulation. However, if that game goes to overtime, Sweden could put itself in the Championship Game with a regulation win.

One way or another, the Americans will find out their championship opponent on Monday night.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight based on FanDuel Sportsbook's 4 Nations Face-Off Odds.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

Today’s Betting Picks for USA vs. Sweden in the 4 Nations Face-Off

USA Moneyline -182

While it’s only been two games, Sweden’s goaltenders have looked completely out-gunned in the 4 Nations Face-Off. Filip Gustavsson was between the pipes in the tournament-opening loss to Canada, stopping only 24 of 28 shots. Subsequently, Gustavsson and Linus Ullmark combined for just 17 saves on 21 shots versus Finland, yielding a cumulative 83.7% save percentage. That benchmark is unlikely to change versus a relentless American attack.

Led by Jake Guentzel, the USA has maximized its offensive output. The Americans have recorded 9 goals on 55 shots this tournament, resulting in an effective 16.4% shooting percentage. Moreover, they’ve effectively created opportunities in the attacking zone at five-on-five and on the powerplay. That two-pronged attack has proven to be too much for Canada and Finland, leaving little hope the defensively weak Swedes can prevail.

With a spot in the final already guaranteed, it’s tempting to think the States will take their foot off the pedal. But this is their first game in front of their home faithful, and we don’t expect them to roll over and die. Even if Sweden’s chances aren’t alive, the USA will be ready to prove they are the best team in the tournament and crush the Swedes at TD Garden.

Brady Tkachuk Any Time Goal Scorer +270

This surprises nobody, but Brady Tkachuk has been a leader for the USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off. His energy and enthusiasm are unmatched, and the younger Tkachuk has made his presence felt in his first two outings. Another signature performance could be on tap against Sweden.

Brady Tkachuk is a spark plug every time he steps onto the ice. The Ottawa Senators captain recorded two goals on five shots and eight hits in the 6-1 win over Finland. Subsequently, he was part of the early-game shenanigans versus Canada while ending the contest with three shots and six hits. Tkachuk is firing at will, and we don’t expect Sweden’s netminders to offer much resistance.

Of course, this type of play was expected from Brady. Throughout the NHL’s regular season, Tkachuk leads the Sens with an impressive 62.4% expected goals-for rating across all strengths. Across those 56 games, he’s been responsible for 11.8 scoring and 4.4 high-danger chances per game.

Tkachuk has carried that analytics success into the 4 Nations Face-Off. Not surprisingly, he’s been a significant factor in the USA’s first two wins. Considering Sweden’s goaltending woes, we’re forecasting another game-changing performance from Tkachuk, seeing the value in backing him as an anytime goal scorer.

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