4 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 8/21/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres

Padres Moneyline (-126)
Over 8.5 Runs (+104)

The San Diego Padres are going for the sweep tonight over the Minnesota Twins. They've won back-to-back games by two runs and even won as an underdog on Tuesday.

Minnesota seems to be carrying the advantage for tonight's series finale, though. The starting pitchers are trending in opposite directions as Simeon Woods Richardson has a 3.94 ERA over his previous three starts and a 3.00 ERA over his last two. Meanwhile, Matt Waldron is struggling this month, posting a 7.47 ERA over three outings while giving up 12 total runs in his two most recent appearances.

Advanced stats suggest these numbers are a little deceiving, though, as Woods Richardson posted a 7.29 xFIP in his last appearance. Additionally, Waldron recorded a 2.91 xFIP despite giving up seven runs in his previous outing. We shouldn't put all of our chips on recent ERAs from each hurler.

Pitch usage could give us a better look at this matchup. Both batting orders should have success because the Twins have the seventh-most runs above average against four-seam fastballs and the fourth-most when facing sliders, which accounts for two of Waldron's three most-used pitches. San Diego carries the ninth-most runs above average against four-seam fastballs, the most against sliders, and the sixth-most when seeing changeups -- Woods Richardson's top trio of pitches.

This paired with the over going 2-0 in this series suggests plenty of runs.

Let's adjust our focus back to the moneyline. While both teams have their advantages against each starting pitcher, the Padres carry the best shot to win this and pull off the sweep.

First off, Waldron's most-used pitch is a knuckleball (38.8%). Minnesota has not faced the pitch enough for a runs above average mark. Seeing a rare pitch with virtually no numbers to predict the Twins' success generates little confidence.

Compare this to San Diego sitting in the top 10 against all three of Woods Richardson's top tools. The Padres also come off a game with two home runs and three doubles, and Woods Richardson is in the bottom 23% of barrel percentage while giving up three dingers over his last two.

I'm more confident in San Diego compared to some uncertainty around Minnesota's numbers against knuckleballs. With that said, back the favorite in tonight's final clash of the three-game series.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Brewers Moneyline (-102)

Despite the Milwaukee Brewers winning 9 of the last 10 against the St. Louis Cardinals, this game is pretty much viewed as a pick 'em. The Brew Crew carry -102 odds to win outright while the Cards are -116. Keep in mind Milwaukee is riding a league-best six-game winning streak while St. Louis is 2-8 over their previous 10.

numberFire's game projections are slightly leaning in the Brewer's favor to cover the -1.5 run line. Milwaukee holding -102 moneyline odds seems like a no-brainer, but what do the stats say?

Kyle Gibson will be on the mound in St. Louis, and he is carrying a 6.11 ERA over his last three starts. He even gave up seven runs in his most recent start while posting a 4.14 xFIP. The Brewers, who have scored the fifth-most runs against right-handers, are a nightmare matchup for Gibson.

Milwaukee is among the top half of runs above average against sinkers, sweepers, and four-seam fastballs -- three of Gibson's four most-used pitches. The Brew Crew are in the top half of slugging percentage (SLG), as well, and Gibson sits in the bottom 18% of barrel percentage, is in the bottom 35% of hard-hit rate, and gave up four big flies in his most recent appearance.

Tobias Myers is providing much stronger pitching for the Brewers. He carries a 1.50 ERA over three appearances this month. The Cardinals are among the bottom 10 teams in runs above average against Myers' top three pitches, a four-seam fastball, cutter, and slider.

The pitching matchup alone is more than enough for the Milwaukee moneyline, not even mentioning the recent head-to-head dominance. Give me the Brewers on the road.

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics

Athletics Under 3.5 Runs (-130)

The last four games from the Oakland Athletics has been like watching paint dry with a per-game average of 2.0 runs. Following a 3-0 win on Monday, Oakland was on the other end of a shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday (1-0).

These teams are among the fifth-fewest runs scored; you could say this series has gone about as expected. Even in the A's win, they mustered up only three runs. Any under line on Wednesday probably carries an intriguing case. My favorite of the night is Oakland to go under 3.5 runs.

The Rays have still managed to hold a winning record at 63-62 by giving up holding the eighth-lowest skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). They will feature another starter with solid stats for tonight as Ryan Pepiot holds a 3.79 SIERA and 3.92 xFIP.

After missing almost a month due to a knee infection, Pepiot picked up right where he left off on August 16th by giving up no earned runs. Pepiot touts an elite 1.29 ERA over his past three contests. The advanced stats are checking out as he posted xFIPs of 3.34, 3.08, and 3.83 over his previous three contests.

Pitch usage is another check for a low-scoring game from the A's; they are in the bottom half of runs above average against four-seam fastballs, changeups, and sliders, which are Pepiot's most-used pitches.

Oakland's batting order has been struggling, and the Rays are putting a quality starter on the bump. Don't overthink this one; the Athletics seem bound for under 3.5 runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.