4 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Dinger Tuesday (8/6/24)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Dinger Tuesdays promo for all customers betting a home run wager on any MLB game today, August 6th, 2024!

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Claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and opting in. You can then place a $25+ pre-live, straight, "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game taking place on August 6th.

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Best Home Run Props

Utilizing our home run projections — which are powered by numberFire — as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+360)

"Tony Taters" has the second-most homers in the American League (32) and could add to it on Dinger Tuesday.

The Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and right-hander Chris Bassitt should be a manageable matchup for Anthony Santander. Bassitt's 35.8% flyball and 38.1% hard-hit rates allowed aren't gigantic, but he's been super fortunate to only allow 0.88 homers per nine (HR/9). That's due to just a 9.3% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) that is well below the league average (12.9%).

When Bassitt departs, the switch-hitting outfielder will get looks at MLB's second-worst bullpen by xFIP (5.29) over the past 30 days, as well.

In that same period, Santander has torn the cover off the ball against righties. He's posted a 1.110 OPS, .384 ISO, 63.3% flyball rate, and 36.8% hard-hit rate in a gigantic sample for a month of 83 plate appearances (PAs).

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections peg Santander for 0.27 median home runs on Tuesday, which would roughly translate to +323 odds for one if correct.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+255)

Though Yordan Alvarez isn't quite showing value in our projections (0.26 homers), I think that's due to his recent 13-game streak without one. Yet, it's only a matter of time before he clubs one against a righty pitcher -- like tonight's projected Texas Rangers starter.

Alvarez has posted a mediocre .730 OPS and .119 ISO (for his standards) in the split over the past 30 days, but his contact metrics show that's just rotten luck. He's had a 63.8% (!) flyball rate and 41.4% hard-hit rate in 51 PAs during this time, which is right there with some of the best home run hitters in the game.

Tonight, the Houston Astros' designated hitter draws Tyler Mahle, whose 3.23 expected (xERA) seems awesome at first, but he's allowing a rate of flyballs (44.9%) and hard-hit balls (39.1%) that have produced a rate of 1.75 HR/9 coughed up to this stage. Jackpot.

Especially considering Alvarez's late-game ABs will be against a struggling Texas 'pen (4.38 xFIP in last 30 days; sixth-worst in MLB), I think he breaks his drought in one of baseball's friendlier parks for round-trippers.

Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Like Santander, Cal Raleigh is a switch hitter that can help us in either split on Dinger Tuesday.

Specifically from the left-handed box against orthodox hurlers, Raleigh's 2024 power binge hasn't slowed down in the past month of play. He's posted a .953 OPS, .259 ISO, 55.8% flyball, and 34.9% hard-hit rate during this period in 70 PAs.

Tonight, his Seattle Mariners host stumbling Detroit Tigers right-hander Keider Montero. Montero's 5.05 xERA, 38.4% flyball rate, and 39.1% hard-hit rate have produced 2.27 HR/9 to this stage, and -- as a common theme of our dinger targets -- his relievers haven't fared much better recently. Detroit is rocking a 4.54 reliever xFIP over the past 30 days.

Though the tougher Seattle ballpark is one thing not working in the favor of "Big Dumper", everything else seems to be. He squeaked into value range at a projection of 0.28 home runs -- the highest on his team by a good margin.

If that projection is correct, it would imply roughly +309 odds for a bomb. This might be a line to shop to make sure value is secured.

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Finally, in the nightcap, we'll turn to another surprise home run hitter from the American League. I didn't intend to pick four teams from the Junior Circuit.

Brent Rooker's dong on Sunday was his 28th, and he continues to mash both splits. Specifically in same-handed matchups like this evening's, Rooker has posted an unreal 1.141 OPS, .433 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 46.2% hard-hit rate in the past 30 days considering that it's come over the course of 76 PAs.

The Chicago White Sox pulled the rug on me yesterday, switching Jonathan Cannon to tonight's start after I had targeted him for a home run. Nonetheless, Cannon's vulnerability -- including above-average flyball (38.1%) and hard-hit (38.1%) rates allowed -- remains. The righty has been fortunate to post just 1.19 HR/9 with these numbers thanks to a 9.7% HR:FB ratio.

Plus, Chicago's dropped 21 games in a row in large part due to the league's worst bullpen over the past 30 days, per a 5.35 xFIP. Sheesh.

We've got the Oakland Athletics outfielder projected for a team-best 0.30 home runs tonight behind his awesome display of power recently, which would translate to roughly +286 odds for at least one big fly if correct.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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