4 Best WNBA First Basket Props for Wednesday 7/9/25

Over a 40-minute WNBA game, a lot can happen, but the action gets underway right at the opening tip-off.

And, although the first basket of the game is a small piece to the puzzle of the eventual winner, we can dig into usage and tip-off trends to examine the WNBA first basket markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

WNBA First Basket Picks and Props for Tonight

Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun

Skylar Diggins (+600)

Starting off the WNBA action early today, we've got the Storm at the Sun at 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

My jumpball simulations just barely favor Seattle in this one, so I'm naturally finding more value in their offense.

While Nneka Ogwumike has dominated first looks for Seattle (a team-high nine first shot attempts for the Storm), there's just not enough value at +390 to want to go there.

Instead, Skylar Diggins is rating out better. Diggins has four first shot attempts for Seattle, second-best on the team.

When sharing the floor with the other Storm starters, Diggins has taken 24.5% of the field goals, same as Ogwumike, per PBPStats.

Golden State Valkyries at Indiana Fever

Kelsey Mitchell (+850)

In a game tipping off at noon Eastern, the Valkyries travel to face the Fever.

My tipoff model favors Indiana in this one (61.3% expected win rate), and that's translating to some value on Kelsey Mitchell at +850 to score first in this game (Mitchell is also +450 to score first for the Fever, which is also interesting if that's your preferred market).

Over 103 minutes this year while on the floor with the rest of the starting lineup, Mitchell has a usage rate of 22.2%, trailing just Caitlin Clark's 29.0%. But the field goal attempt rate (24.7%) is identical for each.

Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas (+430)

The tipoff model is giving the Mercury a 74.1% chance to get the first possession tonight, so you know the drill by now: that's where I want to look first and see if the rest aligns.

I think it does even on the favorite: Alyssa Thomas.

Thomas has taken the first shot for Phoenix in five matchups this season, trailing just Satou Sabally's seven such FGAs.

But with Sabally out, that helps raise Thomas' usage rate and expected field goal attempt rate.

Overall this season, Thomas is actually tied for second in the entire league in first game buckets with four.

Dallas Wings at Chicago Sky

Elizabeth Williams (+800)

Fast forwarding to the nightcap at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, the Wings face the Sky in a matchup between two teams well below .500.

Elizabeth Williams continues to rate out well in the jumpball predictor model, and that means we look first to the Sky.

When we do, we can see that sticking with Williams also makes sense.

When sharing the floor with the other expected starters over a small 26-minute sample, Williams has a team-best 25.0% field goal attempt rate.

While starting the last three games, Williams has taken the first shot for Chicago just once (Michaela Onyenwere has done it in two straight), yet Williams has also taken a team-high 5.0 first-quarter field goal attempts in that split.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.