3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 7/9/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Mets at Orioles

Mets -1.5 (+102)

The New York Mets might be back. On June 12th, the Mets held a league-best 45-24 record. They went on to lose 14 of their next 17 games in what was an astonishing skid but have since taken home five of their last six games, including an extra-innings battle against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday.

Tonight, they'll see Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano, which puts me on New York to win by more than one run.

Sugano has gotten rocked for a combined 13 earned runs and 5 home runs across his last two starts, continuing what has been a harsh MLB debut for the 35-year-old. For the season, he sports a 4.44 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 4.65 SIERA, 14.4% strikeout rate, and a bottom-of-the-league 5.78 expected ERA. Sluggers have been a big issue, as Sugano permits a 12.0% barrel rate, 39.7% fly-ball rate, and 1.83 jacks per nine innings.

The Mets can take advantage, as the active roster boasts a .200 ISO (third-best), .340 wOBA (sixth), and 122 wRC+ (third) versus RHP. New York is currently -102 to score over 5.5 runs, and that's a high enough projection for David Peterson to take care of business the rest of the way.

Peterson has a 3.18 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, and 20.2% K%. His handedness is key, as the O's active roster shows a .218 BA (second-worst), .277 wOBA (third-worst), and 75 wRC+ (third-worst) against LHP. The offense has been much better of late, but they still show a middling .307 wOBA (21st) and 97 wRC+ (20th) in the last 200 plate appearances against southpaws.

Pirates at Royals

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-115)

Fading the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense isn't a bad way to spend our Wednesday. They average a league-worst 3.40 runs per game and net just 2.87 runs on the road.

On the year, they've scored under 3.5 runs in 60.2% of games, including 71.7% of road games. These -115 odds imply only a 53.4% probability.

One would think Pittsburgh is at least drawing a soft matchup to warrant this line. Nope. Kris Bubic, who was recently named to the 2025 MLB All-Star team, will toe the rubber for Kansas City.

Bubic enjoys a 2.36 ERA, 3.03 xERA, 3.42 xFIP, and a 25.6% strikeout rate. He suppresses power to the tune of 0.52 home runs per nine innings allowed -- the third-best mark in the majors.

The Pirates' active roster struggles with a .274 wOBA (second-worst) and 71 wRC+ (worst) against LHP. Seeing that Kansas City's bullpen ranks 10th in ERA (3.43) and xFIP (3.90) at home, look for a characteristically quiet night from the Pirates.

Cubs at Twins

Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

From the worst offense to the best, let's look for the Chicago Cubs to post a five-piece on Wednesday.

The Cubbies are scoring a league-high 5.42 runs per game, including 5.47 runs on the road. They've exceeded 4.5 runs in more games (47) than not (44) this season.

Young gun David Festa enters with a 5.48 ERA that is due for positive regression based on a 4.66 xERA and 4.18 xFIP. That said, he's still permitting a 10.7% barrel rate, 43.3% fly-ball rate, and 1.48 home runs per nine innings, which could prove dangerous against this Cubs group.

Chicago's active roster touts a .457 SLG (third), .341 wOBA (fifth), and 121 wRC+ (4th) versus RHP. Always lurking, the Cubs are averaging 6.3 runs in games that followed a three-run or fewer output for the offense, so last night's sour one-run performance could be particularly telling. I like their chances to bounce back in this one.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.