4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18

Week 18 comes with a limited prop menu due to all of the unknowns around playing time, motivation and more.

Still, I do think there are some spots we can find value. We'll just want to keep in mind how unpredictable slates like this can be when deciding how much to trust that value.

Utilizing our NFL projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 18

Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-118)

The Baltimore Ravens showed us how they'll handle Derrick Henry in a win-or-go-home game last week. I'd be surprised if they didn't run that plan back even with Lamar Jackson starting.

Henry's 36 rush attempts in Week 17 were a new career-high. It was just the seventh time this year he has gone over 18.5 attempts, but six of those overs have come after the team started 1-5, meaning they needed every win they could muster. For the most part, they've leaned heavily on The King, despite what happened late in Week 16.

Henry has been hyper-effective on this volume, too, furthering the thought that they'll keep the same plan of attack. The Pittsburgh Steelers rank just 15th against the run, so it's not a matchup they should be looking to avoid. Like the Ravens, we can keep on riding Henry at this price.

Jared Goff Under 254.5 Passing Yards (-114)

I love Jared Goff to a fault and generally wind up higher on him than consensus.

This is just not the spot for him to have a passing prop this high.

There are a couple of factors that have me riding an under for Goff. The first is that this game is outdoors, and his production tends to dip in those spots. He has averaged 243.8 passing yards per game in 6 outdoor games this season versus 277.0 when he's inside.

Second, the Detroit Lions' offense just isn't healthy enough. Taylor Decker, Penei Sewell, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all dealing with lingering injuries, and you could argue those are the three most important players to the offense outside of Goff.

Finally, as much as I trust Dan Campbell to rouse the troops as he faces his former protege, there is extra uncertainty in the Lions with the playoffs out of reach. They're not going to push injured players to the brink and risk their availability in the offseason. The odds the Lions' offense just falls flat are higher as a result.

All together, we've got a lot of paths to an under here, forcing me to bet against my darling son in his final game of the season.

Trey Lance Under 167.5 Passing Yards (-114)

If you gave Trey Lance a full complement of weapons in a neutral matchup, I could see having a passing prop this high.

I just don't think we'll check either of those boxes, leading to an under, even at a low number.

Although Justin Herbert is the only Los Angeles Chargers player who has been ruled out thus far, I'd expect more names to join him soon. That could include some of the pass-catchers who would help Lance flirt with this number.

The matchup is also as tough as can be. The Denver Broncos can get after the passer in a hurry, potentially forcing Lance to scramble behind a battered offensive line. Scrambling's a fine idea for Lance, but it won't boost his passing yardage total.

I'd expect the Chargers' coaching staff to lean on the run as long as they can, milking clock so they can escape this game healthy for the playoffs. With Lance, they may be able to do that effectively. It all adds up to minimal passing production from Lance unless things get a little wacky.

CJ Stroud Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Houston Texans can still win the AFC South, which would mean a home game in the first round of the playoffs. They're going all out here. Betting markets seem to be treating them more tepidly, putting me on this over for C.J. Stroud.

Stroud has played some quality football since returning from his concussion. He's averaging 0.18 Passing Net Expected Points (numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back in that span, which would rank 10th in the league if it were his full-season number. The offensive line is no longer a liability, and the young pass-catchers are flashing.

This is also a great matchup for Stroud. The Indianapolis Colts are 21st in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass defense rankings and are likely to be without Sauce Gardner in addition to DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward. Stroud lit them up for 276 yards in the first meeting, and that game was in Indianapolis.

Since the Texans' bye, Stroud has gone over 218.5 passing yards in 5 of 8 games, and one of the unders came in a game he left early. I think they'll light up the scoreboard here with the division in reach, and Stroud figures to be a big part of that.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.