4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 3

After back-to-back weeks where my totals model was well above market, I'm finally seeing value in unders.

Exhale.

It's not fun when your model is consistently off in one direction as it makes you think you're overprojecting something. But with an offensive explosion in Week 2, some quarterback injuries, and a bunch of outdoor games, unders are back in play for me.

In fact, my favorite bet of the week is an under.

Let's dig into where my model's spread and total predictions are showing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and outline my favorite bets of the week.

Best NFL Week 3 Spread and Total Bets

Cowboys at Bears

Total Under 50.5 (-110)

Both these defenses stink. We can say that with a high degree of certainty.

For me, though, offense is the major driver of high totals, and I don't think these units are good enough to justify a number in the 50s.

The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears have had some good moments on offense, including the Cowboys' offensive barrage in Week 2. They also looked good in Week 1 against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense.

Now, though, they'll have to play without guard Cooper Beebe, who is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. That could ding them a bit.

As for the Bears, they've been well below average on early downs in the air, and they've been even worse on the ground. Even as we assume improvements as they get more used to Ben Johnson's system, it's unlikely to be a scorched-earth type of unit.

To top it all off, projected wind speeds in Chicago for this game are in the double digits, providing a bigger downgrade for the Cowboys than usual as they move outdoors. As a result, my model has this total at 44.5, way below where the market has it pegged.

Colts at Titans

Total Under 43.5 (-114)

Another indoor team playing outdoors in double-digit winds is the Indianapolis Colts. That -- plus a frisky Tennessee Titans defense -- could keep scoring in check here.

The Titans deserve credit for their start to the season. They kept Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos off balance in Week 1, and the Los Angeles Rams used some explosives to put up 33 points in Week 2. Through two weeks, the Titans have actually had one of the better early-down pass defenses in the league.

They'll get tested by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts as the rush defense hasn't been as stellar. It does help, though, that a rush-heavy script would help bleed clock and reduce the play volume in the game.

Adding to the appeal here is the Titans' struggles on offense. I think they'll hit their stride eventually -- Cameron Ward is good enough for me to keep faith -- but with tackle JC Latham banged up, that might not happen just yet.

Overall, I have this total at 40.2, low enough for me to back the under.

Saints at Seahawks

Saints +7.5 (-115)

Through two weeks, the New Orleans Saints are... kinda fun? It's been encouraging enough where I don't hate taking the points in a projected low-scoring game.

The Saints enter Week 3 sitting 20th in numberFire's offensive efficiency rankings, four spots ahead of the Seattle Seahawks. Adjusting for schedule, New Orleans has been roughly average on early downs both on the ground and through the air, which is a radical deviation from my preseason expectations.

It does make sense, though. They've got a handful of quality skill players to go with a competent offensive line. Even with what I'd expect to be poor quarterback play, they have the pieces to simply not suck.

Add in a bunch of injuries to the Seahawks' secondary, and I think the Saints can at least keep this game competitive. We get a win on a key number of seven here, so we'll see if New Orleans can continue to exceed expectations.

Texans at Jaguars

Texans' Moneyline (+102)

The Houston Texans are another dome team going outdoors, and there's gross weather in the forecast. I still don't think they should be (slight) underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

A lot of that is due to faith in this Texans defense. They bottled up the Rams in the opener, and they mostly held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in check on Monday night.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, have faced two of the least talented defenses in football so far, and they've had some weird misses on offense. They've struggled to get Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter going. Those issues could easily continue against a secondary this talented.

As for the Texans' offense, it looks a lot better once you adjust for schedule. They've actually been above average on early downs both passing and rushing once you take the opposition into account. Their main struggles have come on late downs, an area where they were above average last year despite an underwhelming season.

With Christian Kirk poised to assist the passing offense just in time for an insta-revenge game, I've got the Texans favored by 1.7 points on the road.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.