4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 18

Week 18 in the NFL may feel like a crapshoot, but honestly? I'm a fan.

At least in my experience, betting markets tend to over-weigh motivation. As long as you account for which players are actually playing versus which are sitting, you can often still find edges.

In fact, across the past four seasons, my model's ROI on spreads in Week 18 is higher than it is in all but two weeks across the regular season. That's a sample of just 25 bets where I saw the requisite amount of value, but it gives me faith things are less efficient.

For totals, my Week 18 ROI is higher than all but one regular season week across a sample of 33 games.

We do need to proceed with caution to make sure we're properly accounting for availability. But which spots stand out for the final full slate once we do so?

Here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 18 Spread and Total Bets

Seahawks at 49ers

Total Under 49.5 (-105)

Here, we don't have to sweat the motivation angle; both teams are going all out with the NFC's top seed on the line.

That means we have to white-knuckle four quarters of the San Francisco 49ers' offense, which has been lava hot the past month. This will just be a much tougher task than what they've faced in that span.

In the past three games, the 49ers have faced numberFire's 26th-, 19th-, and 21st-ranked defenses, respectively. They've done exactly what an elite offense should do in those types of spots, and they deserve kudos for that.

The Seattle Seahawks are a different beast.

They enter Week 18 with numberFire's top-ranked defense, sitting fourth against the pass and first against the rush. That unit has remained stout even as the offense has started to show some cracks, another factor that bodes well for the under.

There's also at least a bit of wind in the forecast, sitting at 7 mph, higher than a usual game in Santa Clara. All added up, I have this total at 44.8, giving me plenty of wiggle room to withstand even some unprojected blows from this surging San Francisco offense.

Titans at Jaguars

Total Under 47.5 (-115)

My model has this total at 43.9 even when I give the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense a pretty healthy efficiency boost. I agree that 47.5 is higher than it should be.

The Jags' defense plays a big role in that. They're all the way up to fifth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings, creating a massive mismatch against a Tennessee Titans offense that remains inconsistent.

I also do think the market may be a smidge high on the Jags' offense. Even if we zero in on just the split since Jakobi Meyers' arrival, they'd rank a modest 11th in overall offense if that were their full-season number. It's a step up, but they're far from a juggernaut once you adjust for the teams they've faced.

Finally, we will have a bit of wind in Jacksonville with the forecast currently sitting at 10 mph. I do expect the Titans to put up some sort of a fight, which is conducive to an over, but it's not enough for me to ignore the value I'm seeing in the under.

Cowboys at Giants

Giants Moneyline (+154)

We know that Dak Prescott will start for the Dallas Cowboys. We just don't know for sure it'll be the full game, and based on comments from Jerry Jones, there's a non-zero chance Prescott gets pulled. That ups my willingness to back the New York Giants.

Prescott isn't the only factor pushing me this way. Jaxson Dart looked healthy again in Week 17, and interim head coach Mike Kafka actually let him run a bit, too. It led to a much more impressive showing from the offense than we've seen recently, even after you adjust for the opponent.

For the season, Dart's EPA per drop back is in line with expectations based on the opponents he has faced, which is an impressive feat for a rookie. This time around, he'll get to face the Cowboys' defense, which let up quality efficiency marks to Josh Johnson last week. Dart should be able to close his rookie season on a high note.

The Giants' front office doesn't want the Giants to win, but the players are still playing hard. With this game at home against a division rival, I'm fine continuing to have faith in the players who get on the field.

Because there's potential Prescott plays the entire game, I'm far more inclined to take the Giants' moneyline at +154 than taking the points. I want a bigger payoff for the risk I'm taking on, and the moneyline allows me to get that upside while reducing my stake size. This number has already moved from +190, but I've got the Giants' win odds at 42.6%, so I'm still on board for now.

Ravens at Steelers

Steelers Moneyline (+152)

The volatility is somehow more pronounced here even with everything to play for. And betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers ain't fun after their woeful loss last week.

I just can't wrap my head around sub-40% win odds at home.

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens played great in a must-win game. But they've been in must-win games for most of the past month, and they've still dropped some massive duds. Their progression this year has been far from linear, so it's hard for me to expect them to just whip out a dominant showing once again.

As for the Steelers, last week was awful, and they won't have D.K. Metcalf or Darnell Washington. I'm partly willing to excuse that kind of performance, though, with how well the Cleveland Browns have played at home all year long. It's a different setup this week.

We'll have to see how the quarterback situation shakes out for the Ravens. Maybe Lamar Jackson practices in full all week. To me, though, it looks like the market is already treating this situation as if we have a fully healthy Lamar, so if the market's going to move, it should move in Pittsburgh's favor. I'd agree with that shift as I don't see a huge gap between these two teams, so with the game in Pittsburgh, they should hold the slight edge.

Even with massive egg-on-my-face potential, I'm willing to back the Steelers in this must-win game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.