4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 16

One of the harder aspects of betting the NFL is deciding how much to react to recent results.

Those outcomes are freshest in our minds, so they're going to play a key role. But it's also a minuscule sample in a sport where the samples are already far too small. We have to balance reacting to new information without going too far.

That'll be a test for me this weekend. Last week, I bet on the New England Patriots and against the Baltimore Ravens, and both of those wagers lost.

This week, they're facing off. And I'm showing value in the Patriots again.

What could go wrong?

Let's start there, digging into why I'm willing to go back to the well despite poor results, and then we can lay out other bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 16 Spread and Total Bets

Patriots at Ravens

Patriots Moneyline (+130)

Last week stunk with the Patriots blowing a huge lead and the Ravens blanking the Cincinnati Bengals. Some underlying numbers there, though, do give me reason to think the market is overreacting.

First, the scoreboard doesn't tell the tale for the Ravens. Their offense actually underperformed expectations both on early downs through the air and in late-down success rate once you adjust for their opponent. The defense also allowed the Bengals to move the ball pretty effectively on early downs; they just clamped down on late downs and in scoring position.

Second, the Patriots' ground game is finally starting to get going thanks to TreVeyon Henderson. They've run the ball far more than they should on early downs this year, but with Henderson sparking some efficiency there, it's no longer as big of a drag as it used to be.

At the end of the day, the Patriots have shown us they're a sustainably efficient offense, and the Ravens have been inconsistent at best since Lamar Jackson's return. It all adds up to the Patriots being slight favorites in my model, pushing me to snag their moneyline in a buy-low spot.

Jaguars at Broncos

Total Under 46.5 (-110)

I've given the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense pretty consistent upgrades the past couple weeks due to their stellar recent play. Even with those upgrades, I can't come close to this total.

Once you account for both defenses, I have this at 41.6. That's the biggest disagreement in the market for me.

It's just hard to have a high total with how well these defenses are playing. Both teams are top-seven overall defensively in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. In order to get a high total with that, I'd need the offenses to be playing at elite clips. They have been of late, but I'm not positive that continues.

This will be the biggest test for the Jaguars in quite some time. Their past four games have come against numberFire's 26th-, 28th-, 16th-, and 27th-ranked defenses, respectively. The Denver Broncos are a different beast.

I'm open to the possibility that I'm still too low on these offenses, given how well they've played. I just need to see it over a larger sample for the Broncos and against a tougher opponent for the Jaguars. Until then, I'm happy to back an under in this spot.

Raiders at Texans

Texans Team Total Over 26.5 (-104)

I don't mind the full game total over 37.5 here. The Las Vegas Raiders' implied total is just 11.5, so they don't need to do much to help there. But that handicap is driven almost entirely by the Houston Texans' offense, so we might as well put all of our eggs in that basket.

The Houston offense is starting to build momentum. Their early-down passing numbers last week were their third best marks of the season, and they continued to pick up key yardage on 3rd and 4th down. The offensive line is figuring things out, and the young skill players are earning more snaps. The overall unit has gone from a liability to fully acceptable.

The defense can also set them up with short fields in a matchup like this, and we saw the benefits of that last week.

That all adds up to my model having the Texans' team total at 27.2. That's not too far above the market, but it does get us a win on a key number of 27. All things considered, this is my preferred market over the full-game total just so I don't have to worry about the Raiders' complete dysfunction on offense.

Vikings at Giants

Giants Moneyline (+128)

I was higher than I should have been on J.J. McCarthy coming out of college, so I should be stoked about the past two weeks. It has been fun to see him progress. I just remain skeptical enough to back the New York Giants as home underdogs.

McCarthy enters Week 16 ranked 38th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. He was DFL in that category two weeks ago, so 38th is a step up. But it still ain't great.

Both of those games came indoors, and he'll now have to head to East Rutherford to play in 11 mph winds. McCarthy's used to bad weather from his time in the Big 10, but wind adds an extra element that can disrupt efficiency. We have to at least consider it for a team that plays the majority of its games indoors.

Betting the Giants also allows me to buy into Jaxson Dart. Once you account for the schedule he has faced, Dart's passing efficiency numbers this year are above the league average. He also has a pretty healthy group of skill players, and the offensive line will be a boost against Brian Flores' chaotic defense.

Due to the Vikings' volatility, I have the Giants as slight favorites here. It's possible that's underrating McCarthy, but I'm willing to believe the model is directionally right in saying that the Giants are the proper side.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.