4 Best MLB Futures Bets Before the Second Half: Can Nick Kurtz Win AL Rookie of the Year?

The MLB All-Star festivities have come and gone, allowing the players to shift their focus to the second half of the regular season. At this point of the year, we have a decent grasp of which teams are capable of contending and which players have a shot at securing one of the prestigious awards.

While the trade deadline could shake things up, there are a handful of bets that stand out in the MLB futures markets on FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at which futures are worth taking, including a hard-hitting rookie who is making noise in the AL Rookie of the Year race and win totals for a few teams.

American League Rookie of the Year Award

Nick Kurtz (+370)

Since being called up from the minors back on April 23, Nick Kurtz has done nothing but show that he's capable of becoming one of the premier hitters in baseball. During that span, Kurtz is sporting the 19th-best wOBA (.376), 25th-best wRC+ (139), and 7th-best ISO (.301) in baseball despite missing some time due to injury.

Despite Kurtz's teammate Jacob Wilson being the current favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year trophy with the 22nd-best wOBA (.365), 18th-best OBP (.375), and 3rd-lowest strikeout rate (7.7%) in the league, Kurtz's numbers are going to be tough to ignore if he plays the rest of the season. Even though Kurtz has 131 fewer plate appearances than Wilson, he has eight more HRs and two more RBIs than Wilson.

The other threat in the AL ROY race is Cam Smith, who is sporting a .337 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and .140 ISO with only 7 HRs and 39 RBIs in 323 plate appearances for the Houston Astros. While Kurtz doesn't provide much value as a base runner, his power metrics should be plenty enough for him to make a case for the award -- assuming the Athletics keep him in the majors down the stretch.

MLB Win Totals

Seattle Mariners Over 86.5 Wins (-102)

Entering the All-Star break, the Seattle Mariners are sitting in second place in the AL West with a modest 51-45 record. They've experienced some injuries to their talented rotation, and I'm willing to place some confidence in their pitching staff being a driving force in them earning 87-plus wins before the regular season concludes.

Up to this point, Seattle's starting pitchers have tallied the 11th-best SIERA (3.99), 13th-best xFIP (3.97), 12th-best WHIP (1.23), and 15th-highest strikeout rate (22.0%). There's room for growth for the Mariners' starters, especially with George Kirby (3.37 SIERA and 25.2% strikeout rate) and Logan Gilbert (2.45 SIERA and 35.3% strikeout rate) getting healthier.

As for the bats, Seattle is hoping Cal Raleigh can continue his impressive campaign after posting the second-best wOBA (.416), second-best wRC+ (178), second-best ISO (.375), and most HRs (38) ahead of the All-Star break. With the Mariners also being a team that is expected to be active at the trade deadline, they're capable of going at least 36-30 in their final 66 games.

St. Louis Cardinals Under 84.5 Wins (-130)

On the other hand, I don't have much confidence in the St. Louis Cardinals overachieving the rest of the way with their 51-46 record, especially with how poorly their rotation has been. While the Cardinals have been solid offensively with the 14th-best wOBA (.314), 13th-best wRC+ (103), and 7th-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%), their starting pitchers own the 8th-worst SIERA (4.24) and 4th-lowest strikeout rate (18.5%).

Erick Fedde carries the worst SIERA (5.51) among qualified starters, and Miles Mikolas hasn't been much better (4.50) in his 93.0 innings pitched this season. St. Louis has been talked about more as a team who could look to trade players rather than acquire players at the trade deadline, so there's a chance their roster gets even worse in the coming weeks.

It doesn't help that the Cardinals play in a competitive NL Central, and 14 of their final 21 series to finish the campaign come against teams with winning records. That includes a brutal stretch in September where St. Louis will face the San Francisco Giants (two series), Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers (two series), Cincinnati Reds, and Chicago Cubs all in a row.

New York Mets Over 91.5 Wins (+108)

Before the trade deadline passes, I want to take a stab at one of the best teams in baseball to achieve 92-plus wins, as the New York Mets hold a 55-42 record, which is good enough for second place in the NL East. One of the reasons why the Mets can tally 37-plus victories down the stretch is due to Juan Soto finding his groove in recent months, as the All-Star outfielder boasts the best wOBA (.463), best wRC+ (208), sixth-best ISO (.348), and fifth-best WAR (2.2) since June 1.

If Soto is swinging a hot bat, that makes New York's lineup one of the best units in the league, especially with the likes of Pete Alonso (156 wRC+ and .252 ISO), Francisco Lindor (123 wRC+ and .197 ISO), and Brandon Nimmo (122 wRC+ and .204 ISO) batting around him. While the Mets' entire pitching staff has been formidable with the 17th-best SIERA (3.95) and 10th-best xFIP (3.96), they're a team that is willing to spend money at the trade deadline to bolster their roster for a shot at the World Series.

Of their final 21 series in the regular season, 11 of them will take place at Citi Field, which is worth noting due to the Mets producing a league-best 33-14 record at home in 2025. With New York expected to strengthen their rotation/bullpen at the deadline to improve the roster alongside their lethal lineup, backing them to go at least 37-28 in their last 65 contests at plus odds seems ideal.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.