4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 4/27/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+400)

It's interesting that Kerry Carpenter is shorter for a bomb today than Detroit Tigers breakout star Spencer Torkelson (+480), right?

Carp certainly has a longer track record of success against right-handed pitching, and he's performing well in the split to start 2025. His .844 OPS and .200 ISO only trail Torkelson on the club, and he's produced a ton of loft if his 51.5% flyball rate is any indication.

Anyone putting it in the air against Dean Kremer is live for a bomb. The Baltimore Orioles' righty hasn't found a rhythm in the new campaign, per a 5.41 xERA with elevated flyball (38.3%) and barrel (11.7%) rates allowed. He's coughed up 2.52 HR/9 in 2025 after consecutive years over 1.25 before this.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.24 median home runs from Carpenter on Sunday. We'd put him closer to +368 for a dinger.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 8.5 Runs (-105)

Though it's scary to fade an Arizona Diamondbacks team that's smashed righties in their home park, we could be set up for a pitching duel at Chase Field on Sunday.

Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt is building his most reputable campaign to date with a 2.70 ERA that's decently supported by his 3.51 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's done a nice job of inducing grounders (49.4% rate) and will benefit from an Atlanta Braves offense that hasn't quite hit top gear against righties. Overall, Atlanta's 105 wRC+ against them is just 14th in MLB.

Spencer Schwellenbach is a good answer from the Bravos. The righty's ERA (2.56) and SIERA (3.27) are superior, and he's limited flyballs (28.9%) and homers (0.85 HR/9) to great effectiveness thus far. I just cannot see Eugenio Suarez staying as scalding as he's been in this split after another four homers yesterday.

DRatings projects just 7.25 median runs in this affair. I think it's an overreaction to a friendly venue for hitters that's not a true outlier.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Cubs Moneyline (-112)

After dropping yesterday's affair, the Chicago Cubs can rebound in primetime.

Despite Aaron Nola on the bump for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Cubbies might have the pitching edge. Nola's 6.43 ERA has been a bit unlucky if you stack it up against a 4.66 xERA -- but that's no dominant mark. He's struggled with the highest barrel rate of his career (9.6%) and is allowing a 73.6% contact rate.

Chicago's Jameson Taillon has a better xERA (4.47), and his xFIP in the friendly confines (3.33) has been significantly better than away from Wrigley (4.24). This seems like the spot to back him, especially with winds blowing in tonight.

Against righties, the Cubs (.776 team OPS) have been well ahead of the Phils (.711), too. There's a reason DRatings has them 53.6% to win in this spot.

Seiya Suzuki to Record 2+ Total Bases (+130)

I'm also surprised to see Seiya Suzuki's base prop so lengthy given Nola's struggles.

Philadelphia's starter's lofty contact rate opens the door to one, and Suzuki is the perfect candidate to answer. Against right-handed pitching in 2025, the outfielder has a .760 OPS, .208 ISO, and passable 34.0% rate of hard contact. Importantly for this prop, he's walked just 7 times in 85 plate appearances.

Righties (5.2%) also have a much lower walk rate against Nola than lefties (11.8%), which is why it's a bit confusing Kyle Tucker is so short in this market as a guy who walks plenty himself.

We have Suzuki projected for 2.22 median total bases. I love this bet in lieu of a home run because it shouldn't be overly impacted by wind.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.