4 Best College Basketball Bets for Monday 11/4/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have a wide range of tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
No. 19 Texas vs. Ohio State
Texas -1.5 (-115)
Ninteenth-ranked Texas squares off with unranked Ohio State in Las Vegas tonight, and I think the market is underselling the Longhorns. Texas enters the 2024-25 season ranked 11th according to Bart Torvik's power ratings, and they're one of just six teams to rank in the top 15 for adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Longhorns lost their top four scorers from last season, but they feature 247Sports' 15th-best transfer class and 17th-best recruiting class. That includes preseason All-SEC Third-Teamers Tramon Mark (averaged 16.2 points at Arkansas last season) and Tre Johnson (a five-star recruit).
Ohio State also made some major changes this offseason. After leading the Buckeyes to an 8-3 record as interim coach last season, now-head coach Jake Diebler brought in the No. 17 transfer class and has OSU ranked 33rd in Torvik's preseason power ratings. But they're just 64th in adjusted defense, and that's where I see this game being decided.
Texas was 29th in adjusted offense during Rodney Terry's first full season, and the firepower they brought in over the offseason suggests top-10 upside in 2024-25. We saw OSU struggle to defend in an 18-point exhibition loss to Cincinatti, so I'm not sure they're quite ready to match up with a team like Texas.
At a neutral site venue, I'll jump at the opportunity to get Texas as 1.5-point favorites against an unproven Ohio State side.
Mississippi Valley State vs. No. 5 Iowa State
Mississippi Valley State Under 45.5 (-115)
Iowa State is a predictive metrics darling entering the 2024-25 season. After advancing to the Sweet 16 and finishing fifth in Bart Torvik's power ratings last year, the Cyclones run back an eerily similar squad this season. They return 67% of their possession minutes this season (28th-most in Division I, per Torvik), and that's a big reason they're fifth in the preseason poll and third in Torvik's preseason power ratings.
The Cyclones' 2023-24 success and continuity entering this season is reflected in their opening night line against Mississippi Valley State. Iowa State is favored by 45.5 points against the Delta Devils, by far the widest spread on Monday's slate.
But it's warranted, and there's certainly a case for the Cyclones to cover tonight. They had four wins by 40 or more points last season, and tonight's opponent may very well be the worst team in Division-I hoops.
Mississippi Valley State went 1-30 last season, failing to win a game until late February. The Delta Devils suffered four 40-point losses, eventually finishing 362nd out of 362 teams in Torvik's final power ratings.
Well, not much has changed entering this season. They're second-to-last in Torvik's preseason ratings, with Torvik projecting them to win just six games.
Even so, it's hard for me to lay 45.5 points regardless of who's playing. But I still think we can attack this game by looking at Mississippi Valley State under 45.5 total points.
Simply, this game may feature the nation's top defense against the worst offense. Last season, Iowa State surrendered the fourth fewest points per game (61.5) and had the second highest forced turnover rate (22.2%) in the country. They enter this season ranked first nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That's not great for a Mississippi Valley State side that averaged the fewest points (55.5) and third most turnovers (16) last season. With them sporting the second worst adjusted offensive efficiency entering 2024-25, not much is expected to change on that end.
As a result, I'm expecting the Delta Devils to have a tough time scoring tonight. That sets them up to go under 45.5 total points -- my preferred way to attack such a lopsided matchup despite the 45.5-point spread.
No. 8 Baylor vs. No. 6 Gonzaga
We're treated to a top-10 matchup on opening night when Baylor and Gonzaga square off at 11:30 p.m. ET, and this is one you're going to want to stay up for. But with both sides rating in Torvik's top 15 entering the season, I'm more comfortable playing player props in this one. Here are two I'm seeing value in.
Ryan Nembhard To Record 8+ Assists (+102)
Gonzaga point guard Ryan Nembhard is entering his senior season but just his second in Spokane after spending his first two years with Creighton. He enjoyed his most productive season to date as a Bulldog, setting career-highs for points (12.3), assists (6.9), and field goal percentage (44.5%). He finished eighth nationally in assists, and I'm expecting him to drop dimes early and often in the season-opener.
Nembard's always been a strong playmaker, but his assist totals really took off down the stretch last season. After dishing out 9 assists at Kentucky on February 20th, Nembhard averaged 9.2 assists over the final 12 games. He failed to hit eight assists just four times in that stretch.
With Gonzaga returning 80.2% of their minutes (fifth most, per Torvik), Nembhard's in a nice spot to pick up right where he left off last season against a Baylor defense that's 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency to open the year. It doesn't hurt that the Bulldogs have an 81.5-point implied team total, so there should be plenty of chances for Nembhard to create open looks for his teammates.
VJ Edgecombe Over 12.5 Points (-110)
Baylor freshman VJ Edgecombe is a name college basketball fans will need to get familiar with -- quickly.
A five-star prospect, Edgecombe was the top-rated freshman guard in the country entering the season. He's already a projected top-five pick in next year's NBA Draft, and I'm expecting him to make headlines right off the bat in this matchup with Gonzaga.
Edgecombe averaged 16.5 points per game for the Bahamas during Olympic qualifying matches, serving as the third-leading scorer for a team that featured NBA talents like Deandre Ayton, Buddy Hield, and Eric Gordon. He was named preseason Big 12 Freshman of the Year last week.
This is a situation where we're betting on the talent of a player who has proven it on the world stage against professionals. Torvik projects Edgecombe to average 13.9 points per game this season while leading the team in usage rate. If that's the case, his points prop is going to rise as the season progresses, so this is someone I want to be on early.
Considering Gonzaga was outside the top 50 in adjusted defense last season and returns largely the same roster, we shouldn't fear this matchup for a prospect with as much pedigree as Edgecombe has.
As a result, I'll jump on Edgecombe over 12.5 points and perhaps consider an alt line. He has +158 odds to record 15+ points and +500 odds to score 20+ points.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.