At least for me, betting value in spreads is hard to come by this week.

Outside of Thursday night, only one team is undervalued enough in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds that I'd be willing to bet them. And even that spread has shortened a point since markets re-opened Tuesday morning.

Totals are a different story as I'm seeing a good amount of value there. Thus, we're changing things up and looking at three totals and one spread this week rather than two of each.

Let's start things off with that standalone spread where my model is showing value, and then we'll dive into the totals market after that.

NFL Week 10 Betting Picks

49ers at Buccaneers Pick

Buccaneers +5.5 (-115)

Cluster injuries are a nightmare for an NFL team as they force you to scrape every crevice looking for serviceable replacements. It's typically a death sentence when a bunch of guys at an important position are unavailable.

Somehow, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have still been efficient without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and as a result, I think they can cover +5.5 here.

Through two games without that duo, Mayfield is averaging 0.24 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. If that were his full-season number, it would rank 5th out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs.

I don't know how he's doing it, but it's working.

The Bucs have a tough task this week. Not only are the San Francisco 49ers coming off a bye, but they're likely to get Christian McCaffrey back, as well. Both of those aspects move the needle in their favor.

Even with that, I've got this spread closer to a field goal, allowing me to take the points with the Bucs.

Broncos at Chiefs Pick

Total Over 41.5 (-110)

We've got a two-game sample on the Kansas City Chiefs' offense with DeAndre Hopkins, and the early returns -- not surprisingly -- are very nice.

In those two games, Patrick Mahomes has posted his best and third best efficiency numbers of the season. That's despite playing in pretty heavy rain for one of those games.

It's clear already that Hopkins has provided a boost for an offense that already had put up 26 and 28 points in the two games prior to his arrival, meaning we should expect Chiefs games -- in general -- to be higher-scoring going forward.

On the other side, it should be a struggle for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. But they're not a basement-dwelling unit, by any means, sitting 26th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. The defense also just let up 41 to the Baltimore Ravens, so I've got this total at 45.6, giving us plenty of room toward the over.

Vikings at Jaguars Pick

Total Under 46.5 (-105)

I know the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense isn't great. But even acknowledging that, I still struggle to see why this total is as high as it is.

The Jaguars' offense has come to life recently, scoring 32, 27, and 23 points the past 3 games, respectively. But that number last week was aided by a fluky defensive touchdown, and the offense still ranks just 20th by numberFire's metrics.

As for the Minnesota Vikings, they're just 13th offensively as some of Sam Darnold's chaotic energy has come back to bite him recently. Their defense continues to play well and could bring the Jags back down to earth.

Once you add in 11 mph projected winds, my model has this total under 44. A one-point move downward yesterday means we no longer get a win on a key number of 47, but I still show enough value to take the under.

Eagles at Cowboys Pick

Total Over 41.5 (-115)

Taking the over when Cooper Rush is scheduled to start for the Dallas Cowboys could be foolish. I just think this number has moved too far down.

Neither defense here is elite. The Philadelphia Eagles are 12th by numberFire's metrics while the Cowboys are 30th. With Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland still not practicing last week, even if they do return, it's unlikely they're 100%.

On offense, the Eagles could do the majority of the lifting toward this total themselves. A.J. Brown seemingly has a good chance to play after being labeled day to day with his knee injury, and the Cowboys' struggles against the run should allow Saquon Barkley to move the ball at will.

Rush is a capable backup who had below average but acceptable efficiency numbers back in 2022. His situation isn't as rosy now, but I do think he can do enough to help push this total over a low number.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.