3M Open: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

With major season in the rearview mirror for the men, we're back stateside for the final push before the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

This week, the PGA Tour is heading to Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

3M Open Info
TPC Twin Cities Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 7,431 yards (long)
• Average Fairway Width: 35.3 yards (average)
• Average Green Size: 6,500 square feet (average)
• Green Type: Bentgrass
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -17, -24, -17, -15, -19, -21
• Recent Cut Lines: -2, -4, +1, -2, -2, -3

TPC Twin Cities Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie or Better Rate
• Proximity From 150+ Yards

In six years to date at TPC Twin Cities, the list of winners has comprised some long-hitting ball-strikers, and while we're at it, I'll note if they played The Open the week prior or not for the last five years the 3M Open followed the British Open:

• 2024: Jhonattan Vegas
  • The Open: DNP
• 2023: Lee Hodges
  • The Open: MC
• 2022: Tony Finau
  • The Open: T28
• 2021: Cameron Champ
  • The Open: DNP
• 2020: Michael Thompson
  • The Open: DNP
• 2019: Matthew Wolff

Hodges and Thompson are the outliers there, and interestingly, driving distance itself doesn't have a super strong correlation to success at TPC Twin Cities.

With that said, there's an emphasis on long approaches, and that can very easily explain why some longer hitters have found success.

All six past winners were top-30 in approach for the week, and other than Champ (30th), the other five were top-11 with four sitting top-four in approach during their winning week.

Neither Wolff (59th in strokes gained: putting) nor Finau (64th) putted particularly well during their wins, yet the other four champs were top-15 in putting for the week.

There's a pretty clear case for de-emphasizing strokes gained: around the green in favor of ball-striking and putting.

TPC Twin Cities Past Results

Check out our course history primer for past 3M Open history for golfers in this year's field.

3M Open Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

3M Open Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Sam Burns

• Odds To Win 3M Open (+1800)
• To Finish Top 10 (+230)

Sam Burns rates out as the top golfer in my stats model for the week and has largely solidified his recent ball-striking numbers with positive marks over his last 36 rounds, which is enough for us to trust.

The short game, of course, is great, and the putting is second-best in the field over the last 50 rounds.

Burns also checks the box of having played well at TPC Twin Cities in the past: T7, T37, and T12 in three starts in 2019, 2020, and 2024, respectively.

Burns leads the pack for me among a pretty interesting Big 3 this week along with Chris Gotterup and Maverick McNealy, all of whom are in the mix for the United States Ryder Cup team.

Akshay Bhatia

• Odds To Win 3M Open (+3500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+400)
• To Finish Top 20 (+200)

Akshay Bhatia also has an outside chance to make the US Ryder Cup team but will need to make a strong case moving forward from here.

He's a pretty good fit for TPC Twin Cities, given the irons (second in the field over the last 50 rounds) and birdie numbers (sixth among this field on Tour this season).

Bhatia also ranks 12th among the field in strokes gained per shot from 150-plus yards this year, per datagolf, so he seems well-suited to make a push.

Emiliano Grillo

• Odds To Win 3M Open (+5000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+500)
• To Finish Top 20 (+230)

Emiliano Grillo's ceiling isn't as strong as I'd like (he's 35th in strokes gained ceiling over his last 50 rounds) but does everything else well enough to be on the list this week.

Grillo's approach play ranks him ninth over the last 50 rounds among this field, and he's due for positive putting regression, as he's a 77th-percentile putter from within 15 feet on Tour this year but just 22nd-percentile from beyond that.

More putts dropping should help with that ceiling. And so should returning to a course where Grillo has played well in the past.

Since 2020, Grillo has finished T3, cut, T2, T10, and T24 at TPC Twin Cities.

Matt McCarty

• Odds To Win 3M Open (+9000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+750)
• To Finish Top 20 (+330)

After his T22 at the Genesis Scottish Open, Matt McCarty missed the cut at The Open by two shots and struggled with his approach play. However, the last 36 rounds of approach play is still top-40, and he's a more accurate driver (20th) than he is a long driver (121st).

McCarty is also top-30 in birdie rate on Tour this season -- among this week's field -- and while he's tied for 45th in win odds for the week, he's 32nd in strokes gained ceiling over everyone's last 50 rounds.

Henrik Norlander

• Odds To Win 3M Open (+22000)
• To Finish Top 20 (+600)

This one is much more about the top-20 play than an outright, but Henrik Norlander is third in strokes gained: approach among this field over the last 36 rounds (trailing just Akshay Bhatia and Emiliano Grillo, that is), and over the last 50 rounds, Norlander is actually first.

The short game is a bit weak for Norlander, though the putting numbers are pretty neutral over the last 50 rounds.

Norlander also sits sixth in strokes gained per shot from 150+ yards over the last year and owns finishes of T23, cut, T57, and T12 at the 3M Open over his four starts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.