3 Whitney Stakes Best Bets to Beat the Favorite

The feature race of the weekend—and the handicap division highlight of summer horse racing at Saratoga Race Course—is the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes, a 1 ⅛-mile route for horses aged four and above. The race happens on Saturday, August 3. It is the 11th of 13 on the day, with post time at 5:42 p.m. Eastern. In addition to Grade 1 status and a $1 million purse, the race also offers an automatic berth to the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on November 2.

The Whitney Stakes has been a fruitful Breeders’ Cup Classic prep race in recent years. Two of the last three winners of that end-of-year championship race won the Whitney on their way to the ultimate dirt route crown: Knicks Go romped on the front end as the Whitney Stakes favorite in 2021, and White Abarrio knocked off eventual Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish at the Spa on the way to Breeders’ Cup glory in 2023.

The 2024 edition of the Whitney drew a full field of 12. The morning-line favorite in the Whitney Stakes odds is National Treasure. Last year’s Preakness Stakes winner has won both the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) this year, proving that he trained on nicely into his four-year-old season.

However, the weather could spell doom for the Met Mile winner: there is rain in the forecast for both Friday and Saturday, and National Treasure has run below form in all three tries over a wet track—including in a muddy edition of the Travers last year at Saratoga. With that crack in his armor for the Whitney Stakes, here are the three horses with the best case to beat National Treasure.

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1. Bright Future (Whitney Stakes odds: 5-1 ML)

It feels a little odd talking about a five-year-old with a Grade 1 win already as having a “bright future,” but that remains the case for this lightly-raced horse from the Todd Pletcher barn. He took an extended winter layoff after a close sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and looked solid returning in the Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth on June 15.

Now, Bright Future returns to Saratoga Race Course, the site of two of his five career victories, including that top-level score in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year. He has won his last three starts during which he has had Javier Castellano in the irons, and that includes the pair at Saratoga last year. He is tactical enough to stay in range but not get embroiled in any kind of pace battle, and he consistently finds a speed figure that falls within the range he needs to be a factor in the Whitney Stakes.

The biggest question for Bright Future is the rain in the forecast, since he has never raced on anything but a fast track. However, being by Curlin out of a Bellamy Road mare whose two other starters are both winners on an off track, Bright Future has every chance to skip over the slop beautifully if that rain does come to fruition.

2. Arthur’s Ride (Whitney Stakes odds: 8-1 ML)

With only six starts underneath him, and none in stakes company, Arthur’s Ride cedes experience to everyone else in this field. However, this four-year-old son of Tapit has plenty of promise, and a last-out win over the local course suggests that he is coming into his own at this point of his career, and at two turns.

Arthur’s Ride clearly takes well to Saratoga. He finished second in his first two starts, both maiden races at seven furlongs over the track back in 2022. The stretch out to a one-turn mile got him off the mark, and he won back at that distance to clear his first-level condition in his first start off a 13-month layoff. In his most recent start, his two-turn debut, he ran a career-best in a 1 ¼-mile allowance at Saratoga.

The biggest question for Arthur’s Ride is the weather: the one bad outing in his career was when he had to handle sloppy footing at Churchill Downs back in May. However, with fewer tries on off tracks and a much longer price than National Treasure, this is a better spot to look for upside to do better on a wet track. He also didn’t get his customary spot on or near the lead that day, which means he could do better this time if he gets better early position. That race was a one-turn mile, and this is a mile and an eighth, meaning that’s feasible improvement for him to find.

3. First Mission (Whitney Stakes odds: 9-2 ML)

First Mission is one of the most baffling horses in the top echelon of horse racing. On his best, he is excellent. However, he has thrown some surprisingly poor efforts in along the way, like when he was a completely empty ninth behind National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup back in January. Coming off a fourth-place finish last out in the Stephen Foster, bettors may shy away, but that just means he may be a good enough price to take a shot with him.

He can bounce back from one of his less good races with an excellent effort, as he did when he followed that Pegasus tilt up with an excellent victory in the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn. He did even better next out in the Alysheba, beating a deeper field and reeling in T O Saint Denis, a well-intended Japanese shipper who had it all his own way on the lead. It stands out that First Mission won that race so easily over a sloppy track, given the likelihood of wet footing in the Whitney. It was his first try on the slop, and he thrived.

His tactical speed is also a plus. From this middle gate, where he won’t lose too much ground, he is fast enough to be forward if he needs to be, but also tactical enough to snag a spot tracking off the leaders and still be able to run a winning race. With National Treasure, Arthur’s Ride, and Skippylongstocking in particular having sharp early speed, and even perhaps Disarm and Il Miracolo possible to show front-end gas, that tactical option is a good one to have.

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