3 Super Bowl Touchdown Props to Target

3mo

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Super Bowl Touchdown Props

Deebo Samuel To Score a Touchdown (+140)

The Super Bowl is here and we have a great matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.

It's been a great year writing NFL player prop pieces every week, so let's end the season on a high note and talk about some touchdown props for the big game!

The stage is set in Las Vegas with a 47.5-point over/under and the "home" Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs. We should see a decent amount of scoring in this game, most of which I expect to be in the second half, as these games tend to start a bit slow and scripted.

We'll start with Deebo Samuel, who comes in with a 16.7% target share, 5.0% rushing share, and 0.0% red zone target share in the two playoff games this season. However, these numbers don't tell the whole story.

In the Divisional round, Samuel left the game early due to a shoulder injury and didn't return.

Ending the game with just a pair of targets is far from what we expect from Samuel, as the norm was clearly shown in the Conference Championship game, where he had nine targets, eight receptions, and three rushing attempts.

In the regular season, Samuel had a 21.6% target share and 25.7% red zone target share, which were the second-highest and the highest for the 49ers. The point being, the odds and the role Samuel has played as of late, don't reflect the actual role he had within the offense this year.

With a 25.00 implied team total, the 49ers are expected to score a few touchdowns, and given Samuel's role, his odds are worth considering this week.

Rashee Rice To Score a Touchdown (+140)

When it comes to the Chiefs, Rashee Rice has the best odds worth targeting for a touchdown.

Isiah Pacheco sits at -130 for a touchdown and Travis Kelce is at +100. Both of those are very uninteresting for touchdown props and with Rice at +140, he has a good combination of a strong offensive role and odds we actually want to target.

In the regular season, he had a solid 18.0% target share and 24.2% red zone taret share, the latter of which was the highest on the team.

Rice got off to a hot start in the post season with 12 targets, 8 receptions, 130 yards, and a score. In the last two games, he has a 22.8% target share and 22.2% red zone taret share, both of which are the second-highest on the team behind Kelce.

However, Rice was unable to find the endzone in either of the last two games despite being targeted at a high rate.

I'm banking on both teams continuing to do things in a rational manner and not take extreme approaches to things since its the most important game of the year.

With that said, Rice's involvement in the offense is consistant, but he simply hasn't score in a few games. They should look to get their second-best receiver the ball, something they did at a high rate in the regular season.

George Kittle To Score a Touchdown (+185)

Much like Deebo Samuel above, George Kittle's role in the playoffs is far from what we saw in the regular season.

In any two-game sample size, we will see variance that strays from a player's normal rate of production.

When it comes to Kittle, he had a 20.2% target share and 18.1% red zone target share in the regular season, both of which were the third-highest on the team.

In the playoffs, Kittle has a 15.2% target share and a 0.0% red zone target share. That's right, Kittle has yet to be targeted in the red zone during the playoffs.

However, Kittle was consistently targeted in the scoring area during the regular season and we shouldn't take the 0.0% red zone target share in the playoffs as scripture.

At +185, Kittle's odds are too high considering how involved he was in the 49ers' red zone offense.

Are you ready for February 11th? All FanDuel customers get a No Sweat Same Game Parlay to use on the big game! Plus, new users have the chance to win $200 in Bonus Bets. See the promotions page for more information.

Looking to build some NFL DFS lineups? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.