NFL

3 Super Bowl Rushing Props to Target

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

While the majority of the attention in this year's Super Bowl is centered around Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are both capable of being effective on the ground. Both Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco shouldn't be overlooked in a game where the weaknesses of both defenses come against the run.

There are plenty of unique betting markets available, but there is nothing wrong with sticking with the usual player prop markets. Among all the players who could contribute on the ground in this year's Super Bowl, there are a few rushing props that stand out.

Let's discuss the best rushing props in this year's intriguing Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Super Bowl Rushing Props

Christian McCaffrey Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

In a 49ers offense that is littered with talent, McCaffrey is the best player of the bunch. The All-Pro back averages the second-most rushing yards per game (91.5), the second-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.29), and the second-best rushing success rate (46.9%) among running backs, per NextGenStats.

Throughout the regular season and the playoffs, McCaffrey has scampered for 92-plus rushing yards in 10 of his 18 games -- including six of his last eight appearances. McCaffrey has achieved these numbers with a healthy workload, garnering the fourth-most rushing attempts per game (17.16) at the running back position.

The 49ers could elect to run the ball often against a Chiefs defense that gives up the seventh-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.42). Kansas City also boasts the fifth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense, per numberFire's metrics.

All that makes McCaffrey's over on rushing yards an enticing wager.

Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-132)

There's been no shortage of rushing attempts for Pacheco amid K.C's run to the Super Bowl. Despite tallying the eighth-most rushing attempts per game (15.76) at the running back position, Pacheco has toted the rock 16-plus times in six of his last nine appearances and nine of his 17 appearances this season.

He's been even busier in the postseason. The second-year rusher has been handed the ball 24-plus times in two of the three playoffs games for the Chiefs.

On the flip side, San Fran's formidable defense is surprisingly soft against the run, posting the third-worst rushing success rate (43.0%) and the 10th-most expected points added per attempt (-0.09) to running backs.

In his last nine games, Pacheco is averaging 17.78 rushing attempts per game. While Mahomes will need to have a stellar outing to help Kansas City secure its third Super Bowl victory in the last five years, the Chiefs could lean on Pacheco to attack the weakness of the Niners D and keep the electric offense of the 49ers on the sideline.

Brock Purdy Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (+128)

Let's get a little different for our third -- and final -- rushing prop to target in this year's Super Bowl. When watching Purdy operate San Francisco's dynamic offense, it's clear that he isn't a quarterback who is going to have many designed runs called for him.

At the same time, Purdy is fully capable of extending plays and creating positive plays with his legs, which was evident in the Conference Championship Round when he rushed for the second-most yards (48) he's had this season on five carries in the NFC title game. Even though Purdy has hit four-plus rushing attempts in only six of his 18 games, the games in which he recorded at least four attempts seems to be somewhat correlated to playing defenses that blitz often.

Purdy has posted four-plus rushing attempts against the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Giants -- five of those teams are in the top-12 in blitz rate. After logging at least five rushing attempts in back-to-back games, Purdy could be inclined to run more often than usual against a Chiefs defense that blitzes at the sixth-highest rate (36.3%) in the league.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.