3 Strikeout Props to Target for Thursday 5/30/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

1mo

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Christian Scott Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)

The New York Mets' Christian Scott was posting excellent strikeout numbers in Triple-A, averaging 7.2 Ks per start. This initially continued into the big leagues as Scott posted 14 strikeouts over his first two starts. However, his numbers have come down over the last contests as he's notched only seven strikeouts over his last two appearances.

Which Scott will show up for Thursday's clash against the Arizona Diamondbacks? Will his Ks continue to dwindle, or will Scott tap back into his strikeout magic?

I believe it will be the former.

The Diamondbacks are not an ideal batting order to face when in a K slump as they have the eighth-lowest strikeout percentage (K%) in baseball. Scott's whiff rate has led the way as he's in the 59th percentile in the category versus sitting in the bottom 26% of chase percentage. Arizona rarely swings and misses (9.9% -- tied for the fifth-lowest rate).

The D-backs have the fifth-highest mark in runs above average when facing fastballs. Scott's most-used pitch is his four-seam fastball at 51.8%. His heater usage was sky high in his previous outing as he threw a fastball for 68.1% of his pitches. This is far from the ideal strategy against a team that rakes against heaters.

Arizona is hard enough to strike out, and they flourish against Scott's main tool. The under is in great shape for this matchup.

Jack Flaherty to Record 8+ Strikeouts (+124)

Jack Flaherty is enjoying a resurgent year across the board. He has a 3.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP -- both would be his best marks since 2021. The advanced stats only hammer home the point as his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is 2.26 (on pace for a career-high).

The strikeout numbers tell the same story. Flaherty is in the 95th percentile of K%, the 97th percentile of whiff rate, and the 71st percentile of chase percentage; he has never finished this high in any of these categories. Flaherty's 33.3 K% is far above his current career-high of 29.9%.

Considering Flaherty's elite numbers, it's not a surprise that his strikeout total is sitting at 6.5. Frankly, it feels too low -- as the -162 odds for the over suggests. This provides little value, so I'm backing the Detroit Tigers' pitcher to hit eight strikeouts (+124).

This certainly a bold pick; where's the evidence? The proof is in the pudding as Flaherty has tallied 45 strikeouts over his previous five outings (9.0 per start). He's been right on that average over the last two, totaling nine Ks in back-to-back starts.

The matchup against the Boston Red Sox makes me even more comfortable with this pick. Boston has the third-highest K% and fifth-highest swinging-strike percentage in baseball.

One of Flaherty's weakest categories is hard-hit percentage (63rd percentile). However, the Red Sox have the fourth-lowest hard-hit percentage.

Flaherty has the strikeout stuff to reach eight Ks, and tonight's matchup with the Sox should be a favorable one for him.

Trevor Williams Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)

After finishing with the fifth-lowest K% last season, the Atlanta Braves' strikeout rate has skyrocketed to the ninth-highest mark in baseball. The concerning K numbers have continued of late, too, with Atlanta averaging 11.7 strikeouts per game over their last three games.

This is the perfect stage for the Washington Nationals' Trevor Williams to go over his 3.5-strikeout total. Williams doesn't have the most impressive punchout numbers with a mediocre 21.4 K% (bottom 44%). Still, I believe he has enough to get it done.

Williams is coming off an eight-strikeout performance and ranks in the 64th percentile of ground-ball percentage. Meanwhile, the Braves have the 10th-highest ground-ball percentage. Regular ground balls should help Williams have a nice outing and go deep into this one, giving him more opportunities to get strikeouts.

Additionally, the Nats' starter uses his four-seam fastball the most (35.5%) among all this offerings, and it has the second-highest K% among his pitches (24.7%). Atlanta has the ninth-fewest runs above average against fastballs.

Another solid strikeout total is in the cards for Williams. FanDuel Research's projections agree as we have Williams forecasted for 4.32 strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.