3 Risky Players in Fantasy Football

Taking bold risks can win you your fantasy football league, but it's important to know which risks are worth taking. Some players are injury-prone, others are immersed in an uninspiring offense, and some figure to have their usage threatened. These are the ones we want to avoid.

Utilizing FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections and FantasyPros' ADP data, here are three players who bear risk in season-long fantasy football for 2024.

3 Risky Players in Fantasy Football

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy is currently being drafted as QB11 at pick 99 in fantasy drafts. He finished at QB6 last season and will return with a San Francisco team that is projected to be the highest-scoring offense in 2024.

On the surface, it makes total sense that he is receiving QB1 hype in fantasy drafts. We can't understate how much a signal-caller can benefit from being on a team like the Niners.

However, there are a few key things that draw concern with Purdy, enough to quantify him as a risk at his current ADP.

Let's start with the biggest elephant in the room: Brandon Aiyuk. He and the Niners have failed to negotiate a contract extension. In turn, Aiyuk has been sitting out of practice while his name buzzes around the trade market. If SF ends up dealing Aiyuk for only draft picks, Purdy's fantasy stock will take a hit.

Sure, he still has Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle at his disposal. Even with Aiyuk potentially gone, that's still a pretty loaded room. But as a pocket quarterback, Purdy's fantasy output is heavily reliant on his teammates.

If Aiyuk leaves, an injury to any of CMC, Samuel, or Kittle will matter that much more. It's no coincidence that Purdy's second- and fourth-worst fantasy performances in 2023 coincided with Samuel being out, and it's a tall task to ask both CMC and Kittle to be just as healthy as they were last season.

With little rushing upside, Purdy already sticks out as a soft option at QB. Our projections have him slated to finish the season as QB14, and that's assuming all players participate in a full 17-game season.

He seems to be overvalued at his ADP. Add in that team injuries would hinder him to a higher degree than most other QBs, especially if Aiyuk is gone, and Purdy could become a troubling case in 2024.

Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

We've only ever known Stefon Diggs as one thing: a fantasy mammoth. Since 2020, he's achieved WR3, WR7, WR4, and WR10, in that order.

Currently, he's being drafted as WR20 at pick 35. That may sound like a pretty good deal based on his track record, but we have to think again.

Following a drama-laced 2023 season with the Buffalo Bills, the team dealt Diggs and a pair of late-round picks to the Houston Texans in exchange for a second-round draft pick. He'll now join a C.J. Stroud-led offense and a Houston receiving corps that is stuffed to the gills with talent.

Tank Dell and Nico Collins are the main heavy hitters to point at. The then-rookie combo of Dell and Stroud found amazing success in 2023 before a fractured fibula cut Dell's season short. Collins picked up the slack, finishing the year out as WR9.

The Texans also have Dalton Schultz at tight end and brought in Joe Mixon at running back. Plus, Robert Woods and Noah Brown are still around at wideout.

Mixon and Schultz will be afforded decent workloads based on their position and size. In fact, our Austin Swaim is stamping Mixon as the best fantasy football target in Houston, serving as a way to get in on the Texans' booming offense all while avoiding the tricky calls in the receiving room.

Stroud is unreal and can keep many of his players fantasy-relevant. But between Dell, Collins, and Diggs, who will suffer the most in this overflowing offense? Perhaps the 30-year-old newcomer who was already showing signs of a drop-off in 2023, having his worst statistical season since 2018.

Our projections forecast Diggs to log 1,025 yards and 7.3 touchdowns via 131 targets in a full season, which would leave him as the WR23. Diggs' WR20 ADP at pick 35 is giving him and his role too much credit. His at-times streaky play in 2023 and ability to carve out a sizable role in Houston makes him a risky target. He's still an awesome wideout in an awesome offense, but don't let his name trick you into drafting him too early.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks enter 2024 under an entirely new coaching regime. Mike Macdonald was brought in as head coach and Ryan Grubb is the new OC in town. When the new staff takes a look at the running back room, we shouldn't be surprised if they approach their two young backs with the same energy.

Kenneth Walker III was selected in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft and Zach Charbonnet was nabbed in the second round the following year.

In 2023, the more established Walker averaged 14.6 carries per game to Charbonnet's 6.8. He also was the guy at the goal line. But Walker's workload made up for his inefficiency. He averaged just 4.1 yards per carry and struggled with -0.12 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) last season. Charbonnet, meanwhile, averaged 4.3 yards per carry and 0.17 RYOE/C.

Just because Charbonnet edged out Walker in efficiency doesn't mean he will overtake Walker in usage this go-around, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing to ever happen. Our Riley Thomas expects Walker to be a fantasy football bust in 2024, in part due to this issue.

Walker achieved an RB19 standing through 15 games last season, but his potentially insecure role might stop him short of that in 2024. Currently, Walker is being drafted as RB15 at pick 43. Given the risk regarding what his workload could look like under the new staff and alongside Charbonnet, I'll pass on him at the unappealing draft price.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.