NFL Expert Picks: Fantasy Football Busts for 2024

If you've played fantasy football long enough, you've got a "never again" list.

It's that grouping of guys who burned you once, torpedoing your entire season, who you refuse to touch in the future.

Today, we're going to try to keep that "never again" list short, laying out players with the potential to frustrate fantasy managers in 2024.

Below is the list of players the FanDuel Research staff is avoiding in drafts this year due to their bust potential. These are players in the top 50 picks of FantasyPros' half-point per reception (PPR) average draft position (ADP) data with the potential to implode this year.

Which players going early in drafts have the biggest bust potential? Let's check it out.

Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Bust: Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry is being drafted as the RB9 and inside the top 20 overall, per FantasyPros, with the prevailing narrative that his move to the Baltimore Ravens keeps him in the conversation as one of fantasy's best running backs.

However, Henry is entering his age-30 campaign and has led the NFL in carries in four of the past five seasons, and the dreaded RB age cliff often arrives suddenly and swiftly.

Further, the Ravens lost three starters on their offensive line this offseason, resulting in the unit being ranked 28th by Establish the Run and 25th by PFF.

Add in that Henry still provides little as a pass-catcher, and this ADP feels like it's banking on an outlier TD total in an offense that historically splits backfield work and features dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. Henry scored 12 touchdowns last year -- only one fewer than 2023 Baltimore lead back Gus Edwards -- but was still just the RB15 in half-PPR points per game.

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Bust: Nico Collins

Nico Collins is an outstanding player, ranking fifth in yards per route run (3.28 YPRR) last season, but this Houston Texans passing attack seems prone to induce migraines.

Tank Dell had a 26.9% target share to Collins' 23.1% in the final full six games the two played together, and now, they're adding Stefon Diggs' six straight 1,000-yard seasons into the mix. Plus, Dalton Schultz won't vanish off the planet entirely.

With Diggs in this same range and Houston sporting a below-average pass rate over expectation last season, I'm waiting a round to draft Joe Mixon for Texans exposure and sending my best wishes to those guessing who emerges as C.J. Stroud's top guy.

Annie Nader, Writer

Bust: Mike Evans

Is “bust” too harsh of a word here? Perhaps.

Mike Evans has earned a WR12 standing or better in five of his last six seasons and is one of the most durable wideouts this league has seen, suiting up for 94.4% of regular-season games in his 10-year career. He’s everything you can ask for in a fantasy player, but 2024 might be the year that changes.

For starters, negative regression is waiting in the wings, ready to pounce on Evans at a moment’s notice. Last season, Evans scored a league-leading 13 touchdowns via 136 targets while Chris Godwin notched just 2 scores on 130 targets. The former’s 9.6% touchdown rate was the second-highest in the league (minimum 50 targets) while the latter’s 1.5% TD% was the lowest among eligible players. The scoring gods shouldn’t be as kind to Evans this go-around.

According to our Brandon Gdula, Evans posted 5.5 touchdowns above expectation in 2023, which was the biggest case of overperformance among all WRs.

Beyond the scoring come down, we’re probably fair to question whether a volatile Baker Mayfield can repeat last season’s success. Does he have another 17-game, 4,000-yard, 28-touchdown season in him?

Plus, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have some intriguing young talent in Trey Palmer and Bucky Irving. I’ll pass on Evans, who is going as WR15 at pick 31 overall.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Bust: Kenneth Walker

In his first full season as the Seattle Seahawks' starting running back, Kenneth Walker III saw his rushing yards per game drop from 70.0 to 60.3. His efficiency was also down at 4.1 yards per rushing attempt compared to 4.6 in 2022.

The numbers go on with Walker carrying -0.12 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) last season. According to PlayerProfiler, Walker also ranked 21st in yards created versus 12th in 2022.

The bottom line: Walker wasn’t that good last season.

Enter Zach Charbonnet, who could apply pressure for touches in his second season. He carried better efficiency marks in nearly every mark last year, from 0.17 RYOE/C to 4.3 yards per rushing attempt. Charbonnet has an RB42 ADP compared to Walker’s RB16.

Considering the efficiency marks last year, there’s a decent chance that Seattle opts for a more split backfield, harming Walker’s fantasy football value.

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Bust: Davante Adams

By no means do I want to disrespect one of the greatest receivers of our generation. But I’m not touching Davante Adams with a 10-foot pole at his current ADP (17.3).

Adams still finished as the WR11 in 2023, but but he had more games with single-digit points (nine) than double-digit (eight). Nearly a third of his total fantasy points came in two 30-point weeks, and that’s just not the kind of variance I’m looking for in a second-round player.

That’s not all on him, though Adams did register his lowest yards per route run (1.97) and yards after the catch per reception (3.3) since at least 2017.

This year’s Las Vegas Raiders are projected to be a bottom-10 scoring offense, but they still have several other mouths to feed in the passing game. I see Adams as more of a top-24 receiver than the top 10 one he’s currently being drafted as, enough to consider him a bust relative to ADP.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Bust: Jahmyr Gibbs

I adore Jahmyr Gibbs as a player, and I want exposure to this Detroit Lions offense. I just don't think this is the right route to get it.

Gibbs was an animal during his rookie season, and he gets work in the passing game, which is exactly what you want from a guy you're drafting as the RB6 at pick 12 overall.

But David Montgomery isn't going anywhere primarily because of the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" doctrine.

The Lions finished sixth last year in schedule-adjusted rushing efficiency, according to numberFire's metrics, and Montgomery topped Gibbs in both Rushing Net Expected Points per carry and Rushing Success Rate. That's likely part of the reason Gibbs played less than 40% of the snaps in two of the Lions' three playoff games and was held under 60 yards from scrimmage in the other.

If we could reasonably expect Gibbs to dust Montgomery, I'd be in. He's a dynamic player in a great offense. But Montgomery's a good football player, too, and the Lions have no incentive to make this a one-man backfield. Thus, I'd rather avoid Gibbs at the back half of the first round.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.