3 Predictions and Player Prop Picks for Ravens at Steelers, Week 11
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Baltimore Ravens take on the Pittsburgh Steelers? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Ravens at Steelers Best Bets
Ravens -3 (-120)
Spread
My model's NFL Week 11 spread and total predictions tilt toward the Ravens here, and I understand why.
The Steelers are a super run-heavy team, even with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Their pass rate over expectation actually declines to -10.5% with Wilson versus -7.8% with Justin Fields.
That probably ain't gonna work here. The Ravens' rush defense is third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings. They've struggled to stop the pass, and the Steelers have been efficient through the air, but they'll be forced into a gameplan they don't typically embrace.
This will also be a big test for the Steelers' defense, which ranks 13th against the pass and is facing -- by far -- the league's most efficient passing offense. That's why the model pushes things Baltimore's direction, and I'm inclined to agree with it.
Total Over 48.5 (-108)
Total Match Points
As mentioned, this will be a stylistic deviation for the Steelers, and it's one that's conducive to points.
Despite their high rush rate, the Steelers still rank 11th in adjusted pace, according to my colleague Brandon Gdula's numbers. They should be even faster here as passing plays lead to more clock stoppages and chunk gains, both of which are over-friendly.
The Ravens may also have to air it out more. The Steelers rank second against the run and have faced a pass attempt on 57.6% of early-down plays this year. That's the third highest mark in the league. One of the teams ahead of them is their opponent in this game.
In other words, we could see a bunch of drop backs here, which is going to jack up play volume. That's a big part of why my model has this total at 51.0. It feels odd for a divisional matchup with such a rich defensive history, but I think it does make sense stylistically.
Zay Flowers Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Zay Flowers - Receiving Yds
There are a couple of way to exploit this game's expected pass-heavy nature.
My favorite is via Zay Flowers.
Flowers has been the catalyst of the Ravens' passing game, handling 26.4% of the team's overall targets this year. He's also at 36.4% of the deep targets (more than 15 yards downfield), meaning he can pick up chunks in a hurry.
Still, Flowers has gone over this number in 5 of 10 games thus far, and a 50.0% rate wouldn't justify laying -113 on the over. But three of those unders came in games when the Ravens had massive second-half leads, and even with my model liking the Ravens, I don't see that happening here. In a neutral script, he should get great volume.
Flowers is a prime candidate for alternative yardage markets as he has hit 90-plus receiving yards in all 5 games he has hit this mark. But even the baseline number is good enough for me to give it consideration.
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Which bets stand out to you for this week's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the lines for each contest.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.