3 NHL Best Bets for Sunday 10/13/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Minnesota Wild vs. Winnipeg Jets

Jets Moneyline (-164)

The Winnipeg Jets are one of two teams coming into Sunday’s slate well-rested. That’s an advantage they can wield unmercifully against a Minnesota Wild side that is coming off a heartbreaking home loss on Saturday night. The betting market has taken a soft stance on the home side, but we think they have a more pronounced advantage than the betting line implies.

Scheduling notwithstanding, Winnipeg has a substantive advantage on home ice. Last year, they finished with the sixth-best winning percentage at home, with a 27-11-3 record or 69.5% points percentage. Predictably, that’s reflected in their analytics profile as well. The Jets posted positive relative metrics in Corsi rating, shots for percentage, and scoring chance percentage, ranking in the top half of the league in every category.

Conversely, the Wild were a mess on the road. They finished with 48.6% Corsi, 49.8% scoring chance, and 48.6% shots for ratings, putting them at a disadvantage any time they left the Xcel Energy Center. Coming off a shootout loss last night, with travel, those low benchmarks could be out of reach against the Jets.

This is Minnesota’s first road test of the year, and we expect them to be out-classed by a well-rested Jets side. The Wild may possess the defensive structure to limit Winnipeg’s offense, but they can’t stop it outright. Combined with their ineffective offensive output, we expect the Wild to come out on the losing end of a one-sided battle.

Seattle Kraken vs. Dallas Stars

Stars Moneyline (-205)

Both the Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken were in action last night, but the Stars have the added advantage of playing their second game on home ice. Coming off a hard-fought road win against the Wild last night, we expect Seattle to come out a little flat against a dangerous Stars team.

Dallas remains a Western Conference powerhouse, a position that’s validated by its elite analytics profile. The Stars finished last year with the third-best expected goals-for rating in the NHL, out-working their opponents on both ends of the ice. They finished the 2023-24 season with a 55.3% high-danger chance rating, highlighting their ability to create opportunities without compromising defensive integrity. Further, they fell below their expected goals for rating, implying that the Stars are progression candidates this season.

The Kraken escaped Minnesota with a win last night, but they may have exhausted their puck luck in doing so. The playoff hopefuls were out-chanced in scoring and high-danger chances, ending the game with a 39.9% expected goals for rating. Seattle’s success against the Wild was driven by special teams scoring, an unsustainable way of winning games. The Kraken managed just six high-danger chances on Saturday, and we’re not expecting them to create more against a superior Dallas team.

When the dust settles on this Western Conference showdown, we anticipate a similar game score to last night. Seattle will be unable to match the Stars’ intensity on either end of the ice, making it an ideal entry point for bettors looking to back the home side.

Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers

Flames Moneyline (+215)

Edmonton Oilers fans don’t have to look too far back to substantiate their current concerns. The Western Conference Champions got off to a similar slow start in 2023-24 before turning things on late in the season. That trend is expected to continue this year as they drop their third straight game to open the season against the rival Calgary Flames.

Edmonton can’t get anything going offensively. The Oilers were shut out in their series opener, scoring just one goal at five-on-five against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday night. That’s eerily similar to what we saw from them last year, with the Oilers scoring more than one goal at five-on-five just once through their first five games of the season.

The Flames have encountered no such problems early in 2024-25. Calgary buried six goals in their first game of the season, following that up with six more last night against the Philadelphia Flyers. More impressively, six of those 12 goals came at five-on-five, with the Flames tallying 22 high-danger chances across those two outings.

These Pacific Division foes come into Sunday’s clash on very different footing. Through the first two games of the season, the Flames have torched their opponents by a cumulative 12-8 score. Meanwhile, Edmonton can’t find a way to recapture last year’s glory, falling into an uncomfortable 0-2-0 start that’s reminiscent of last season’s struggles. The betting market may be ready to forgive the Oilers but we are not. At the current offering, there’s an edge in backing the visitors in this one.

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