3 NHL Best Bets for Saturday 11/9/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Vancouver Canucks
Oilers Moneyline -118
We were just starting to get a glimpse of exactly what Connor McDavid means to the Edmonton Oilers. The Pacific Division contenders struggled without their captain in the lineup, failing to generate any meaningful offensive production. However, upon McDavid’s return last time out, the Oilers put together an immediate improved effort. While they didn’t emerge victorious, we’ve got Edmonton pegged for positive regression over their coming games, starting Saturday night against the Vancouver Canucks.
In four games without McDavid, Edmonton went north of nine high-danger chances only once, averaging 8.0 opportunities per game. In his first game back, that number immediately jumped to 12. Not surprisingly, improved production yielded increased output, with Edmonton recording two goals at five-on-five, a benchmark the Oilers had fallen below in two of their previous four. It’s evident the three-time Hart Trophy winner is a driving force in Edmonton’s success, and the team should be at their best in tonight’s intra-divisional showdown.
While Vancouver is riding a three-game winning streak, its success is contradicted by some of its underlying metrics. Over their past four outings, the 'Nucks have fallen below nine high-danger chances in all but one of those contests; however, that’s resulted in increased scoring. They’ve tallied 12 goals across that small sample, posting a shooting percentage above 12.5% in three of those four contests. That imbalance supports the idea that Vancouver is due for negative regression as output balances with production.
McDavid has the Oilers on an upward trajectory. Conversely, the Canucks’ offense is overheating and due for a correction. Consequently, we see an edge in backing Edmonton as short road favorites as the Oilers get back on the winning track with their top scoring threat back in the lineup.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
60 Minute Tie +380
Over the past decade, the Toronto Maple Leafs have never taken goaltending seriously. That’s been a limiting factor year over year and may once again inhibit their success on Saturday night versus the Montreal Canadiens.
This season, Toronto has staked its success to a pair of career backups. Anthony Stolarz has served as the Leafs’ primary netminder, with Joseph Woll acting in a supporting role. Playing on consecutive nights, Toronto might have misplayed its goaltending hand. They turned to Stolarz against the Detroit Red Wings on Friday night, meaning Woll and his 89.2% save percentage will be holding down the fort against the Habs on Saturday. His presence between the pipes puts the Leafs at a disadvantage as they take on a high-scoring Canadiens squad.
Head coach Martin St. Louis has Montreal firing on all cylinders right now. Over their past seven games, the Canadiens are scoring on 10.1% of shots at five-on-five and 11.8% of their shots across all strengths. Most of that scoring -- 8 of their 14 goals at five-on-five -- has come from high-danger areas. Coincidentally, that’s where Woll struggles most, as he’s posted an 83.4% high-danger save percentage throughout his career.
We give the Canadiens the edge in this Original Six matchup, yet we can’t discount the Leafs' advantage on home ice. As a result, there’s an implied advantage in betting this one to be tied at the end of regulation and get sorted out in overtime or a shootout.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Colorado Avalanche
Hurricanes Moneyline -124
Things aren’t going well for the Colorado Avalanche early in 2024-25. The perennial Central Division contenders have ranked as one of the worst analytics teams in the league, dropping 8 of their first 14 games of the season. That downward trajectory continues on Saturday as they host one of the top teams in the NHL, the Carolina Hurricanes.
Colorado’s bad season has taken a turn for the worse. Over their past five games, the Avs have been outplayed three times, yielding a 47.9% expected goals-for rating. Predictably, that’s resulted in just one win and puts Colorado at a pronounced disadvantage against the Canes.
Carolina remains one of the top analytics teams in the NHL, giving the Hurricanes an advantage on a nightly basis. Since the start of the season, the Canes have a league-best 61.4% expected goals-for rating, but somehow, they’ve ratcheted that benchmark higher over their recent schedule. Across their past four games, the Hurricanes have posted a game score above 67.3% in all but one of those contests. That success is premised on structured play on both ends of the ice, with Carolina out-chancing its opponents 49-32 across the four-game sample.
The Avalanche should have trouble hanging with the Hurricanes. Carolina is superior in every facet of the game, advantages they can wield even as the visitors on Saturday night.
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