3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 12/23/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Jets Moneyline (-102)

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ modest three-game winning streak came to a crashing halt on Saturday night. The Atlantic Division contenders will try to pick up the pieces quickly as they host the Central Division-leading Winnipeg Jets on Monday night. Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, their metrics indicate another loss is forthcoming.

Winners of five of their past seven, the Leafs’ recent hot streak has given way to unsustainable metrics. Toronto has been outplayed in two of its past three and is vastly overachieving relative to expected values. Over their past four games, the Leafs have tallied 19 goals, with ten of those coming at five-on-five. That’s a significant departure from their expected total of 13.6 and 8.8, respectively. Correction is inevitable and should come against a defensively improving Jets squad.

Winnipeg hasn’t always embraced the advantages of modern hockey, but we’ve seen a vast improvement in its recent schedule. The Jets have outplayed their opponents in three of their past four, relying on studier defensive zone coverage. Over that stretch, they’ve held their opponents to an average of 7.8 high-danger and 19.3 scoring chances. Improved defensive structure gives them an advantage over the regression-bound Maple Leafs.

The Leafs' diminished price reflects their current on-ice product. Still, this line should be tilted more in the Jets' favor. As a result, we see an implied advantage in backing the underdog Jets in this spot.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Flyers Moneyline (+104)

The NHL is sending its viewers into the holiday freeze with a classic rivalry matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers snapped out of their recent funk with a win last time out, and they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into PPG Paints Arena.

While they got their first win in four games on Saturday night, the Flyers had been building momentum for a few games. Philadelphia has outplayed its opponents in two of its past three, culminating in a 53.7% expected goals-for rating. Pointing the lens further back reveals an even more dominant analytics performance. Since November 23, the Flyers have had a 57.8% expected eGF rating while outplaying their opponents in all but two of their 14 games.

In their current form, the Pens can’t contend with the Flyers. Pittsburgh has looked ineffective over its recent sample. They’ve been outplayed in three straight and six of their past nine, an unbecoming streak that actually includes more wins (5) than they deserve. Still skating around with an inflated PDO, more losses await the Penguins after the break.

We see a pronounced advantage in backing the Flyers in this spot. While overtime isn’t out of the question, we see ample value in backing the visitors at plus-money.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators

Predators Moneyline (+106)

This season hasn’t gone the Nashville Predators’ way. Expectations were high for the Preds, but they defeated themselves early in 2024-25. Nevertheless, Nashville has shown signs of breaking out and can head into the holiday freeze on a high note with a win over the visiting Carolina Hurricanes.

The Predators have turned a corner recently. They’ve gone 3-1-1 over their last five games with a vastly improved on-ice product. Thanks to improved defensive resolve, Nashville has outplayed its opponents in all but one of those contests. The Preds have held their last three opponents to a combined 19 high-danger chances, with only one of those opponents eclipsing five quality opportunities. Predictably, that correlates with fewer goals against and a 94.7% save percentage at five-on-five.

Scheduling-wise, this is a troublesome spot for the Canes. Carolina is coming off a win on Sunday night in New York and will play its third game in four nights. Moreover, they’ve abandoned their typically stout defensive structure, giving up 12 or more high-danger chances in two of three while out-chancing their opponents just once over that stretch.

A win doesn’t absolve the Predators of all their misfortunes, but it does position them for success heading into the new year. This is an advantageous spot to back Nashville as plus-money home underdogs.

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