3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 12/13/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Caleb Martin Over 27.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (+102)

The Charlotte Hornets will visit the Miami Heat for a rematch of Monday's game, and Caleb Martin should be primed to follow up on his 34.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) performance -- but we'll need him to get to only 28.0 PRA tonight.

On the season, Martin's numbers aren't particularly exciting. He's averaging just 18.9 PRA on 25.6 minutes of play. However, Martin was dealing with a knee injury that had him miss 10 games and left him with an early-season minutes restriction, so his overall numbers are not a trustworthy sample size.

The Heat are without three of their starters -- Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, and Bam Adebayo -- which has moved Martin into a starting role. In the four games since Adebayo has been out, Martin is averaging 30.25 PRA. In the three games since both Adebayo and Highsmith have been out, and Martin has joined the starting lineup, he is averaging 32.7 PRA.

Not only will Martin play a heavy scoring role tonight in tonight's game, but he should see plenty of court time due to Miami's lack of depth.

numberFire projects Martin to play 34.98 minutes against the Hornets, which is right around what he's been averaging as a starter (34.6). In five games this season where Martin has played at least 31 minutes, he is averaging 32.6 PRA.

We also have to be interested in this matchup. Charlotte gives up the fifth-most points, eighth-most rebounds, and eighth-most assists per game.

Martin takes on a shooting guard role in this current Heat lineup, and the Hornets sacrifice the fifth-most three-point makes (3PM) to shooting guards each game. Martin scores 34.2% of his points from behind the arc.

Charlotte also has a weak paint defense, letting up the fifth-most points per game from this area. Martin cashes in 48.1% of his points from the paint. The areas and opportunities to score are wide open, and it seems pertinent to target his PRA line given just 9.5 combined rebounds and assists (RA) are accounted for in this prop, while he's been averaging 10.4 RA over his last five games.

Trae Young Under 27.5 Points (-104)

While I'll proceed with caution when betting against an efficient scorer, I find it likely that Trae Young will stop short of 28-plus points tonight, just like he has done in 13 of his 20 games this season.

Young (shoulder) missed one game for the Atlanta Hawks last week but returned on Monday to the tune of a 19-point, 26-minute game where he was ejected seconds prior to the fourth quarter. He is listed as probable for tonight's matchup against the Toronto Raptors and participated in morning shootaround, so while he will very likely play, this does show us a glimpse of where his scoring production could be affected.

But I am much more interested in this matchup against the Raptors. Toronto is a lock-down defensive team against point guards. Dennis Schroder and OG Anunoby make up one of the best defensive backcourts in the league, paving the path for Toronto to give up the second-fewest points per game to point guards.

When it comes to scoring, Young heavily relies on the three-ball and free-throw attempts (FTA), scoring a combined 61.9% of his points from these areas and ranking third in the NBA in free-throws made per game.

Unfortunately for him, the Raptors give up the sixth-fewest FTA per game and allow fewer 3PM to point guards than any other team in the league. This will be a tough matchup for Young to shine, so I'm siding with the under.

Julius Randle Over 34.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

Mitchell Robinson sustained an ankle injury last Friday and will miss substantial time for the New York Knicks. I don't think the market has quite caught up to how Julius Randle performs in Robinson-less games.

Randle went for 42.0 combined points and rebounds (PR) in Monday's first game without Robinson, and I expect him to surpass the 35.0 PR marker tonight against the Utah Jazz.

Last season, Randle averaged 36.0 PR in 22 games without Robinson and cleared this prop in 68.2% of those games.

Tonight's contest against the Jazz should afford Randle quite a bit, as Utah allows the third-most points to power forwards per game. The Jazz also allow the seventh-most (tied) points in the paint per game, and Randle leads all Knicks with 10.5 paint points per game.

On the season, the Jazz let up the fifth-fewest rebounds per game. But in the eight games since lead-rebounder Lauri Markkanen (hamstring) has been out, the Jazz are giving up the 13th-most rebounds.

Utah has the fifth-worst defensive rating in the NBA. In 10 games against teams that rank in the bottom 10 of defensive rating, Randle is averaging 35.0 PR, even with four of these games imposing blowout-based minute restrictions.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.