Michigan State vs Louisville College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Second Round

The No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (26-7) will compete with the No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (24-10) on Saturday with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament up for grabs. This game tips at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Michigan State vs. Louisville Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 21, 2026
• Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS
• Location: Buffalo, New York
• Arena: KeyBank Center

Michigan State vs. Louisville Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Michigan State win (62.2%)

See the betting insights and trends below before making a wager on Saturday's Michigan State-Louisville spread (Michigan State -4.5) or over/under (150.5 points).

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Michigan State vs. Louisville: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Michigan State has won 18 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 15 times.
• Louisville has covered 17 times in 34 chances against the spread this season.
• Michigan State covers the spread when it is a 4.5-point favorite or more 42.9% of the time. That's more often than Louisville covers as an underdog of 4.5 or more (never covered this season).
• The Spartans own a worse record against the spread when playing at home (8-9-0) than they do on the road (6-4-0).
• This year, the Cardinals are 10-7-0 at home against the spread (.588 winning percentage). On the road, they are 3-8-0 ATS (.273).

Michigan State vs. Louisville: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Michigan State has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 26 games this year and has walked away with the win 23 times (88.5%) in those games.
• This year, the Spartans have won 18 of 20 games when listed as at least -196 or better on the moneyline.
• Louisville is 1-3 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 25% of those games).
• The Cardinals have played as a moneyline underdog of +162 or longer in just one game this season, which they lost.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Michigan State has a 66.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Michigan State vs. Louisville Head-to-Head Comparison

• Michigan State averages 79.3 points per game (95th in college basketball) while allowing 68.4 per outing (42nd in college basketball). It has a +362 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 10.9 points per game.
• Jeremy Fears Jr.'s 15.4 points per game lead Michigan State and rank 272nd in college basketball.
• Louisville is outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game, with a +419 scoring differential overall. It puts up 84.7 points per game (20th in college basketball) and gives up 72.4 per outing (132nd in college basketball).
• Ryan Conwell is 66th in the nation with a team-leading 18.7 points per game.
• The Spartans record 36.8 rebounds per game (16th in college basketball) while conceding 25.3 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 11.5 boards per game.
• Jaxon Kohler leads the team with 9.1 rebounds per game (27th in college basketball action).
• The Cardinals are 23rd in the country at 36.2 rebounds per game. That's 5.8 more than the 30.4 their opponents average.
• Sananda Fru paces the Cardinals with 6.1 rebounds per game (273rd in college basketball).
• Michigan State ranks 36th in college basketball with 105.1 points scored per 100 possessions, and 61st in college basketball defensively with 90.6 points conceded per 100 possessions.
• The Cardinals rank 26th in college basketball with 106 points scored per 100 possessions, and 61st defensively with 90.6 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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