3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 1/31/24
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
Paul George Over 26.5 Pts + Reb (-104)
The Los Angeles Clippers will visit the Washington Wizards tonight, and I think Paul George is due for a big game.
George is averaging 28.5 combined points and rebounds (PR) this season, and he's netting 28.7 PR per contest this month.
While the -104 odds on this prop show a 50.98% implied probability, George has exceeded 26.5 PR in 60.5% of his games this season. But beyond the good deal we are getting on these odds, we have to love this matchup.
The Wizards surrender more points and rebounds to small forwards than any other team in the NBA. They are giving up the fourth-most three-point makes (3PM) to this position, as well.
George nets 44.8% of his points from behind the arc and is rocking with a solid 41.2% three-point percentage. He's also scoring a combined 41.7% of his points from either the paint or foul line, and Washington is giving up the eighth-most free throw attempts and second-most paint points.
The Clippers are favored by 12.0 points in this one. While there is some blowout risk, George is clearing 26.5 PR at a higher rate (67.9% of the time) when the Clippers win games. I think the friendly matchup should get George going early tonight, so I'll side with the over.
Cody Martin Over 14.5 Pts + Reb (+102)
The Charlotte Hornets will have a depth issue in tonight's game against the Chicago Bulls.
Four of their original five starters from the beginning of this season are out -- LaMelo Ball (ankle), Gordon Hayward (calf), Mark Williams (back), and Terry Rozier (traded) -- which has given Cody Martin the chance to step up in a starting role.
Martin has been in Charlotte's starting lineup for two straight games. He's averaged 18.0 PR in those contests (16.0 and 20.0 PR performances), and I don't see any reason why he couldn't follow up on these numbers tonight.
The Bulls are a middle-of-the-road defensive team, but this will be a pace-up game for them. Chicago is surrendering the second-most 3PM in the league, which is great news for Martin backers.
Martin nets 41.3% of his points from downtown and will fire off threes when given the chance. Tonight, he'll get a chance to go up against the most sacrificial three-point team in the league and will once again look to make his mark in the starting lineup.
I think we could see Martin get some work done from behind the arc, but I'm most encouraged by his minute potential. In games where Martin has played at least 27 minutes, he is averaging 14.9 PR per contest. A glance at Charlotte's depth chart shows us a lack of assets, so I'd be quite surprised if we didn't see Martin play at least 27 minutes tonight.
Martin went up against Chicago earlier this month to the tune of an 18.0 PR performance. I'll take the plus odds that he can surpass 14.5 PR against them tonight.
Donovan Mitchell Over 6.5 1st Quarter Points (-115)
Donovan Mitchell has a great matchup on deck against the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are one of the worst NBA teams we've seen in quite some time and should get eaten up by a player as crafty as Mitchell.
However, the 12.5-point spread and Detroit's tendency to get blown out have me hesitant to target a full-game Mitchell prop. There's a chance we could see a big dip in his second-half minutes should the Cleveland Cavaliers pull away with a likely big win, so instead, I'm keen on targeting Mitchell's first-quarter points prop.
This season, Mitchell is averaging 7.7 points off of 9.9 minutes in the first quarter of games. Across his last 15 games, he is averaging 8.6 first-quarter points and has scored 10.0 points in the first period of his last two games.
The Pistons are surrendering the seventh-most points in the first quarter. They have a particularly tough time defending guards, allowing them to score the fourth-most points per 36 minutes in the NBA.
Mitchell is great at driving to the paint and getting to the foul line. He nets a combined 53.9% of his points from either the paint or free throw line, and I'd expect him to take early control of this game. Detroit allows the fifth-most paint points and second-most free throw attempts per game. Mitchell scored seven first-quarter points against this team earlier this season, and I think he is primed to take advantage of them again.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.