3 NBA Best Bets for Wednesday 10/30/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
Nets +11.5 (-110)
The Brooklyn Nets will play the second night of a back-to-back on the road this evening. They're also projected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year with a league-low 19.5 win total. Even still, I like them to cover an 11.5-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Nets beat the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday and hung around with the Denver Nuggets last night, losing by four points in overtime. They also lost to the Atlanta Hawks by just four points in their season opener. That's carried Brooklyn to a 3-1 record against the spread. Does the overtime nature of last night's contest scare me into believing this team could be fatigued tonight? Sure. But asking the Grizzlies to cover a long spread could be a tall task.
This season, Memphis has lost by 20 to the Houston Rockets (42.5 win total), three to the Chicago Bulls (29.5 win total), and escaped the Utah Jazz (26.5) by just two points. That's led them to a 1-3 record against the spread and a -1.9 net rating, not too far off from Brooklyn's -3.3 net rating.
Ja Morant (thigh) is listed as questionable for tonight's game. He's yet to exceed 28 minutes this season, which has not only kept Memphis' best player off the court but also prevented this team from finding a true groove.
The Nets are ceding the second-fewest three-point attempts (3PA) per game while the Grizzlies are allowing the third-most 3PA. Dennis Schroder, Cameron Thomas, and Cameron Johnson can knock 'em down for Brooklyn, and it's awfully hard to picture them losing by more than 11 points if they manage to win or nearly tie the Grizzlies from downtown.
You can get Brooklyn's moneyline at +520 odds, which implies just a 16.1% win probability. Considering this is the team's second night of a back-to-back off the heels of an overtime battle, I won't jump to recommend the Nets outright. At the same time, I just don't think the Grizzlies have earned the shake they are getting from the market.
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
76ers -4.0 (-110)
The Detroit Pistons (0-4) are looking to pick up their first win of the season tonight. They've lost each of their games by at least six points, though all of those contests have come against teams that currently own favorable odds to make the playoffs.
I'm not exactly into the Philadelphia 76ers as a whole, and with Joel Embiid and Paul George both sidelined, they've been even worse. But in a home game against a team that's struggling with a -7.6 net rating (fourth-worst in NBA), I like them to cover a soft 4.0-point spread.
The Sixers have plenty of talented players outside of Embiid and George, and the team is due for some major shooting regression. Philadelphia is shooting the ball at a 41.2% clip (third-worst in the NBA) and suffer with an appallingly-bad 27.5% 3P% through three games. Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre, Caleb Martin, and Eric Gordon are all shooting threes at a 27.3% clip or worse.
Maxey (37.3% 3P%), Gordon (37.8% 3P%), and Martin (34.9% 3P%) were all capable three-point shooters a season ago. I expect Maxey, in particular, to lead the regression charge tonight.
Detroit is allowing opponents 14.8 3PM per game (seventh-most in NBA). They're also letting up a 46.6% FG% (ninth-highest). Philadelphia's offense won't be hot garbage for much longer, so I'll back them to cover at a number that I deem as kinder-than-should-be.
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
Over 233.0 (-110)
On Monday, we recommended over 234.0 points for a meeting between the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards, noting that both teams ranked in the bottom four of defensive rating and the top six of pace a season ago. These groups met up four times last year and managed totals of 251, 244, 256, and 226 points -- good for an average of 244.3 points.
The over eventually came in on Monday, with the Wizards prevailing with a 121-119 win. Just two days removed, these teams will run it back. I still like the over, this time set at 233.0 points.
Similar to last season, the Wizards (30th) and Hawks (26th) each have atrocious defensive ratings. Washington (4th) and Atlanta (5th) are also running at two of the top paces in the league. Further, both teams currently rank in the top six of 3PA allowed per game.
Let's circle back to Monday's competition. That one totaled 240 points thanks to Atlanta and Washington shooting threes at a combined 42.8% clip. I won't necessarily bank on similar three-point success this go-around. However, I am willing to vouch that these teams won't miss a combined 14 free throws like they did on Monday. Points we could lose from behind the arc could be gained at the charity stripe.
Jordan Poole (16-for-26) has been crazy hot from downtown. While I'd argue that Atlanta's soft defense, including a league-worst three-point defense, could allow Poole to keep it up tonight, we have to be ready for regression to hit. Trae Young, however, could be in for a boisterous night after going a poor 2-for-15 from the field and 2-for-10 from the three-point line on Monday. It's impressive that this game managed a 240 total on Monday despite the most lethal scorer on the floor going for just 14 points. That speaks to the quick pace these two teams employ, a big reason why I'm going back to the well on the over tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.