3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 12/12/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
Over 227.0 (-110)
Boston Celtics Over 119.5 Points (-120)
This will be the third meeting of the season between the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics. Each of the first two meetings had 242-plus total points scored, which is why the over at a line of 227.0 is an enticing wager on Thursday.
Total Points
Neither of these teams operate at fast paces, with the Pistons sitting at 21st in pace and the Celtics ranking 22nd. At the same time, Detroit is an average shooting team across the board in effective field-goal percentage, rim field-goal percentage, mid-range field-goal percentage, and three-point percentage -- ranking 17th or better in each of those metrics.
While being average is more than enough for the Pistons to contribute toward the total, most of the heavy lifting is going to be done by the Celtics at home. Not only is Boston recording the third-most points per game (120.1), but they are first in adjusted offensive rating (118.7) and sixth in effective field-goal percentage (56.2%).
Home Team Total Points
On top of that, the Celtics attempt three-pointers at the highest rate (56.5%) in the league while sitting at 13th in three-point percentage (37.0%). Meanwhile, the Pistons are 28th in three-point percentage allowed (37.5%), so this could be a contest where the shots from beyond the arc are falling for the Celtics, helping them to produce 120-plus points for the third time this season when facing Detroit.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Toronto Raptors Under 107.5 (-118)
Aside from Scottie Barnes being sidelined for the Toronto Raptors, there are other reasons why the Raptors could have a tough time generating points on Thursday versus the Miami Heat. Even though Toronto operates at the 12th-fastest pace, Miami is 26th in pace as the Heat tend to try to slow teams down on both ends of the court.
Additionally, the Heat are 12th in adjusted defensive rating (111.5) and 13th in effective field-goal percentage allowed (54.0%) while giving up the 7th-fewest points per game (109.3). Miami is also third in offensive turnover rate (11.8%) and first in defensive free-throw rate, so they don't give opponents many extra possessions or free points at the charity stripe.
Away Team Total Points
As for the Raptors, they are 22nd in adjusted offensive rating (110.8), 23rd in effective field-goal percentage (52.5%), 27th in rim field-goal percentage (59.1%), and 23rd in three-point percentage (34.1%). Along with those underwhelming numbers, Toronto is 27th in offensive turnover rate (15.5%) and 28th in free-throw percentage (74.5%).
Points haven't been easy to come by for the Raptors this season, and not having Barnes available certainly makes things tougher for them. Considering that Barnes is 17th in box plus-minus (+5.0), it's hard to envision a scenario where Toronto is scoring nearly 110 points in a potential pace-down game against a formidable Miami defense.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.