3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 1/2/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, let's see what NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promo for all customers betting on either NBA on TNT game tonight.

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You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button. You'll then receive Bonus Bets to use on either of tonight's NBA on TNT games: Boston vs. Minnesota or Philadelphia vs. Golden State!

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Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves

Celtics Over 111.5 Points (-110)

The Boston Celtics (24-9) and Minnesota Timberwolves (17-15) will square off for tonight's first leg of an NBA on TNT doubleheader. Dating back to last season, every matchup between these clubs has been decided by seven or fewer points and two required overtime.

Tonight, the Celtics are favored by 4.0 points, and my favorite way to bet this game is by looking at them to exceed their team point total.

Boston is averaging 119.6 points per game (fourth-most in the NBA). They've scored at least 111 points in 81.8% of games and have exceeded 111.5 points in 75.8% of games (25 out of 33 contests).

There's a reason why the market has lower-than-normal expectations for Boston's offense tonight: the Timberwolves rank 6th in defense and just 25th in pace. A slow-paced, defensive-minded Minnesota group will hinder Boston's scoring output, but the market has clearly accounted for that, perhaps even too much. The Celtics have played 10 contests against teams that rank in the bottom nine of pace. In this split, they averaged 117.5 points and cleared 111.5 points at a 60.0% rate.

Boston is known for their three-point barrages by way of their league-leading 50.4 three-point attempts per game. On the season, Minnesota is letting up only 35.8 3PA (third-fewest). However, across their last 12 games, they've been coughing up an average of 39.3 3PA (10th-most). With Minnesota's three-point D heading in the wrong direction, I think the Celtics will come out on the right side of 111.5 points tonight.

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

Heat -1.5 (-108)

The Indiana Pacers (16-18) and Miami Heat (17-14) will meet up tonight, and we have an opportunity to back the home team to cover a mere 1.5-point spread.

Miami comes in with a 10-5 record and +6.4 net rating (ninth-best in the NBA) on their home floor. Indiana, meanwhile, struggles with an 8-12 record and -4.7 net rating (ninth-worst) on the road.

On the season, the Pacers own a -2.6 net rating (tied for 11th-worst). The Heat have played eight home games against teams that rank in the bottom 15 of net rating. Not only have they gone a perfect 8-0 in this split, but they won these games by an average of 15.3 points. Here's a look at their margin of victory in this sample: 8, 17, 10, 41, 10, 10, 15, and 11 points.

It wouldn't be fair to talk about the Pacers without mentioning their recent improvements. They've won 7 of their last 11 games, including 6 of their last 7 road games. They won out against some decent competition in that span, too, including the Celtics, Phoenix Suns, and Golden State Warriors.

It hasn't hurt that they've been shooting threes at a 38.5% clip (fifth-best) in that 11-game sample, up from 36.6%. The Heat and their 10th-ranked defense could put a stop to that. Miami allows the 11th-fewest three-point attempts and makes per game. At home, they surrender the eighth-fewest attempts.

Jimmy Butler returned to Miami's lineup yesterday and went an efficient 3-for-5 from the field in 25 minutes. Butler hadn't played a full game since December 16th and should manage to take some pressure off of Tyler Herro, who has been scorching hot as of late. The Heat are 3-1 on the second leg of back-to-backs this season, including a dub over the Cleveland Cavaliers (29-4). I'll back them to keep it rolling tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Clippers Under 104.5 Points (-105)

The market has low expectations for the Los Angeles Clippers' offense in tonight's battle against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Asking an NBA team to score under 104.5 points in this day and age seems like a tall task. Upon further review, that's been the norm for the Clippers in a matchup like this one.

Oklahoma City comes in with the best defensive rating in the NBA. The Clippers have played 13 contests against clubs that rank in the top 10 of defense. In this split, they averaged 102.5 points and scored under 104.5 points at a whopping 69.2% rate (9 out of 13 games).

In that aforementioned 13-game sample, the Clippers scored over 106 points just thrice. One of those outlier performances came against the Memphis Grizzlies, who operate at the fastest pace in the league. Another one came against this very OKC team, but the Clips went an unreal 20-for-37 (54.1% 3P%) from downtown in that one while they mustered only 92 points in their other meeting with the Thunder.

To add, Los Angeles is netting fewer points on the road (107.8) than at home (109.9) and the Thunder are surrendering a league-low 103.3 points per game. With LAC's three-point volume sitting at the sixth-lowest mark in the league, they aren't a scary offensive threat.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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