3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 11/22/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
Over 236.5 Points (-110)
The over has been a nice trend for the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards; it's hit in four consecutive Celtics games and is 3-1 over the Wizards' previous four.
After logging 128.3 points per game (PPG) over the last three, Boston has more than enough to cut up this Washington defense, which carries the Association's worst defensive rating. As usual, the Celtics are seeing green from three-point land, averaging the most attempts and makes per contest. The Wizards give up the sixth-most three-point attempts and third-most three-point makes per game.
The category is further emphasized by shot distributions, via Dunks & Threes. Boston carries the highest shot distribution from three, and it's by a wide margin at 55.8% while the second-highest mark is 49.0%. Meanwhile, the Wiz give up the 13th-highest shot distribution from beyond the arc, sitting in the top half of allowed splits around the rim and at midrange.
There's not much suggesting Washington has the spell to slow the NBA's third-best offensive rating. The Celtics carry a 126.5-team prop for this game; it's safe to say Boston should do more than enough for the over.
Total Points
The trick here could be if the Wizards do enough to help the over. Their total sits at only 110.5 points as 16-point 'dogs. Despite carrying the third-worst offensive rating while logging 109.9 points per game (seventh-fewest), Washington's shot distribution is actually solid. The Wiz carry the 14th-highest shot distribution around the rim while holding the 16th-highest three-point shot distribution.
Boston's interior defense has been vulnerable at times, giving up the 4th-most points in the paint per contest paired with giving up the 13th-highest two-point percentage. The Wizards have also shot above 40.0% from three in two of their last three, potentially putting the Celtics' defense in a bit of a bind.
Between the over trends and enough advantages for each offense, give me the over.
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Nets Over 104.5 Points (-110)
The Philadelphia 76ers are off to a nightmare 2-12 start, and even Joel Embiid's return over the last three games hasn't solved the problem as Philly has lost five straight. Tonight's opponent, the Brooklyn Nets, is 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS) while the Sixers carry a 3-11 record. Brooklyn to cover +6 is intriguing, but we have a better choice in the Nets' team total.
We aren't asking much of Brooklyn considering the 104.5-point total. Much of this has to do with Friday's ugly 215 total thanks to each squad sitting in the top four for the slowest paces across the NBA. Still, the Nets are averaging 111.7 PPG along with the 10th-best effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in the league at 55.1%.
Philly's defense isn't exactly striking fear into opponents, ranked as the 13th-worst unit by defensive rating. Opponents hold a 56.1 eFG% (third-highest) against the 76ers, sounding off the alarms. Thanks to playing at a slow pace, opponents are at least logging the second-fewest field goal attempts per game.
Away Team Total Points
Brooklyn's three-point attack (third-highest shot distribution) should still have enough in the tank to flourish. Philadelphia gives up the 12th-highest shot distribution from three-point land, and the Sixers allowing the 7th-highest shot distribution around the rim -- helping the Nets' chances of getting some easy looks around the rim.
Nicolas Claxton (back) also has a chance to return from injury after missing three consecutive contests, which would further aid Brooklyn's attack around the rim. The questionable status of Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) could be the biggest concern for the over as he elevates the three-point attack thanks to his 42.5% shooting clip from deep.
The team's top-three scorers will still be active (Cameron Thomas, Cameron Johnson, and Dennis Schroder), giving the Nets enough lift for scoring at least 105 points.
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers +3 (-110)
The Sacramento Kings have been up and down thus far, but they've been a consistent fade when it comes to the spread. After going 1-4 ATS over the last five, I expect that trend to continue. The Los Angeles Clippers have covered three consecutive games during their three-game winning streak.
Fridays' matchup could feature an ugly, low-scoring contest, which would favor the Clips' sixth-best defensive rating. Both teams are in the top half for the slowest paces and fewest field goal attempts per game.
While the Kings carry the sixth-best offensive rating, regression feels imminent. Sacramento's shot distributions are far from inspiring, for it holds the lowest shot distribution around the rim, the highest on mid-range jumpshots (oof), and the 11th-lowest distribution on three-point attempts. None of that is a recipe for flourishing in modern day basketball.
Spread Betting
Los Angeles' offense isn't great at 108.9 PPG (sixth-fewest), but at least the unit holds the 16th-highest shot distribution around the rim. When the Kings hold the eighth-lowest three-point percentage, winning the paint battle could fuel a win for the Clips. Sacramento also surrenders the third-highest shot distribution from three, and L.A. is deadly when given shots, draining 38.2% of its three-point attempts (fifth-highest).
Extra possessions is yet another check mark for Los Angeles as it holds the 10th-highest offensive rebounding percentage compared to the Kings' 8th-lowest mark.
Considering each team's pace and iffy shot distributions, this one could be like watching paint dry. If that's the case, Los Angeles is more than capable of covering at home with a rebounding advantage.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.