3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 11/15/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 237.5 Points (-110)

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Chicago Bulls tonight, and it's a matchup of contrasting styles.

Cleveland is an excellent defensive team, ranking fifth in predicted defensive rating, per Dunks & Threes' metrics. Chicago, meanwhile, sits 26th in predicted defensive rating. Despite both teams ranking high in pace -- Bulls first and Cavs 10th -- this total might be a bit too lofty.

This 237.5-point total is well above the usual number of points we've been getting in Cleveland games. Over the past three Cavs games, Cleveland and their foes have combined for an average of 219.0 points. The market thinks the Bulls will rope the Cavs into playing a more Bulls-type game as Chicago's past three contests have averaged 239.0 points.

Only one of Chicago's last three contests have gone under 237.5 points -- a 119-113 loss to the Cavs on November 11th (232 total points).

numberFire's NBA projections have this Cavs-Bulls affair being even more low-scoring than that one as they project 218.6 total points. It's rare to see this big of a discrepancy between the projections and the betting line. While I'm not that bullish on the under, the under is the side I'll be on for this game.

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks

Knicks -3.5 First-Quarter Spread (-104)

Just like we all predicted, the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets are both sitting on five wins in mid-November. New York's new pieces haven't quite meshed so far while the Nets have been feistier than expected.

But if you dive a little deeper into the numbers, there's a large gap between these sides, which is why New York is a 9.5-point favorite. I'll pass on the full-game spread -- the 9.5 points falls right in line with numberFire's projections -- and take New York to win the first quarter by at least four points.

Despite a 5-6 record, the Knicks rate like an elite team, ranking second in Dunks & Threes' predicted net rating. The Nets, meanwhile, slot in 24th in predicted net rating.

Surprisingly for a Tom Thibodeau team, New York's offense (2nd in predicted offensive rating) has been well ahead of its defense (13th). I think New York's D will improve over time, and they should come out of the gates with their hair on fire tonight after dropping a home game to the Bulls (124-123) last time out.

Expecting the Knicks to be super motivated from the jump, I'm more comfortable backing them to cover in the first quarter than I am taking them to cover for the full game.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings

Kings Moneyline (+108)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a bit of a rut right now, and a road matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a tough spot to go when you're not playing well.

Minnesota is two games into a brief three-game road trip. Both of the first two games were against the Portland Trail Blazers, and they didn't go well, with Portland taking back-to-back games against Minnesota -- by 8 and 14 points at that. Those two defeats came on the heels of a one-point home loss to the Miami Heat, so the T-Wolves are in the midst of a three-game slide.

The Kings are headed in the other direction, winning four of their past six. By Dunks & Threes' predicted net ratings, the Kings are actually one spot in front of Minnesota, with Sacramento ranking inside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating.

This should be a really tight game. These two teams met once already this season, and it was a two-point win for Minnesota. numberFire's model has the Kings winning this one by a forecasted score of 111.6-111.0. So, yeah, it should be close.

Given that, I'll take the slight home 'dog at plus odds on the moneyline.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.