3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 1/17/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Timberwolves at Knicks

Knicks -5.0 (-106)

The Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks square off for their second and final meeting -- this time at Madison Square Garden. Considering New York came away with a 26-point road W when they squared off in Minneapolis last month, this is an intriguing spot to back the Knicks -5.0 tonight.

New York enters Friday with the fifth-best record (27-15) and net rating (+6.5) in the NBA. Minnesota, meanwhile, is just 21-19 while ranking 12th in net rating (+1.8). The Wolves do sport a top-10 defense, but they're a measly 17th on offense. While New York is 2nd on offense and 15th on defense, we saw which strength won out the first time these sides matched up.

The Knicks routed the Timberwolves, 133-107, back on December 19th. Despite keeping pace from beyond the arc and winning the turnover battle, Minnesota was outrebounded 57-37. That's been a strength of New York's all season -- they're 4th in total rebound rate -- while the Wolves have been just average on the glass (15th).

Assuming Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable) suits up tonight, I'd expect more of the same this time around. KAT proved to be a matchup nightmare for Minnesota, scoring 32 points and securing 20 rebounds in their December date. His contributions helped offset an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from leading scorer Jalen Brunson (14 points; 5-of-14 shooting).

The Knicks will also have Josh Hart back after he missed that first matchup. Hart ranks second on the team in VORP (Value Over Replacement), so his return should give them an even bigger boost.

It doesn't hurt that the Knicks sport the league's fourth-best net rating (+8.8) at home, while Minnesota is just ninth in road net rating (+1.4). With more firepower this time around, I'm fully expecting New York to take care of business yet again against the Timberwolves, covering as 5.0-point favorites in the process.

Nuggets at Heat

Heat Moneyline (-110)

The Denver Nuggets travel south to take on the Miami Heat in a rematch of the 2022-23 NBA Finals. Though neither side is playing as well as they did in the postseason two years ago, these are still playoff-caliber teams. The Nuggets are fourth in the Western Conference standings while the Heat are eighth in the East.

Though Denver sports a better record than Miami, this is a spot I'm targeting the home Heat to win outright.

Miami has had an up-and-down season -- in no small part thanks to their ongoing saga with star Jimmy Butler. Butler will return from a seven-game suspension tonight, so it's fair to be skeptical about how Miami will look. But I'd find it hard to believe they'd insert him back into the lineup if there wasn't some sort of mutual understanding about what Butler needs to do to raise his trade value.

The Heat only went 2-5 in his absence, though the last six of those game came in an extended west coast road trip. They'll return home tonight to a venue they own a 10-7 record and +2.6 net rating at.

Denver has been one of the better road teams in the Association, going 12-8 with the league's fifth-best net rating (+5.5) away from home.

Still, the Nuggets struggled mightily in their most recent contest without three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic is questionable tonight, and an official announcement on his status could alter this line dramatically.

Even if Jokic plays, Miami matches up well enough with Denver to consider their -110 moneyline odds at home. Across Jokic's last seven regular season matchups with the Heat, he's only averaged 22.1 points per game.

numberFire's NBA game projections have this one decided by less than a single point. In what feels like a true toss-up, I'll back the home side, expecting a vengeful return from Butler.

Grizzlies at Spurs

Over 239.5 Total Points (-110)

The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs will match up for the second time in three days tonight. After they combined for 245 points in Memphis on Wednesday night, we can look for both sides to light up the scoreboard yet again, pushing this total over 239.5 in the process.

Memphis enters Friday with the league's fifth-best offensive rating, but they lead the league in scoring (123 points per game) thanks to their league-leading pace. They've been just as potent on the road, averaging 122.6 points per game.

San Antonio is just 19th in offensive rating, but they've been much better on their home floor. They're averaging 114.6 points per game at home (13th) compared to 108.4 points per game on the road (23rd).

The Spurs are right around league average in terms of pace, so I'm expecting Memphis to dictate the game speed yet again. In San Antonio's three other games against top-three pace teams, the game's totaled 259, 263, and 224 total points.

That should be enough to get tonight's Grizzlies-Spurs game past 239.5 total points, especially considering both sides are outside the top 10 in scoring defense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.