3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 1/10/25
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Magic +6 (-110)
The Orlando Magic were expected to return their star forward Paolo Banchero in a back-to-back stint on Thursday and Friday. After not going yesterday, Banchero is expected to play in his first game tonight since October.
Over a small sample size of five games to start the season, Banchero was logging 29.0 points per game (PPG) while shooting 49.5% from the field. Orlando already has the NBA's second-best defensive rating and now it returns its top offensive player, who led the team with a 31.1% usage rate early in the season.
With an improved offense, a cover at home against Milwaukee looks promising, especially when the Bucks are 3-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last seven games. Probably the Magic's best chance of a cover is controlling the pace of play.
Spread Betting
The total is 210.5, suggesting a low-scoring game, and if that's the case, covering six is very obtainable. Orlando plays at the slowest adjusted pace compared to the Bucks as the 11th-quickest pace.
Winning the possession battle often means controlling the tempo. Rebounding is the first check mark for the Magic, for they sport the 13th-highest offensive rebounding percentage compared to Milwaukee carrying the lowest mark.
Additionally, Orlando forces the 3rd-most turnovers per game (16.9), and the Bucks aren't anything special in this department by averaging 14.3 turnovers per game (14th-most) and 13.6 forced turnovers per contest (7th-fewest).
By winning the possession battle, I like the Magic's chances of making this a scrappy, defensive game that keeps it close. DRatings' game projections has Orlando losing by about five points -- which would be a cover.
Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics
Kings Under 109.5 Points (-118)
The Sacramento Kings are on a roll, winning five consecutive games while logging 122.6 PPG. However, they will face off one of the NBA's best teams tonight in the Boston Celtics.
Boston holds the seventh-best defensive rating, meaning some regression for Sacramento's offense looks likely. In two of the Kings' last three games, they shot over 40.0% from three. For a team that shoots only 34.5% from deep (ninth-lowest), I doubt this keeps up with opponents shooting only 35.6% from three-point land against the Celtics (11th-best for defense).
Away Team Total Points
Additionally, Sacramento's shooting splits continue to cause concerns. It attempts mid-range jumpers at the highest clip while sporting the second-lowest shot distribution around the rim and the seventh-lowest split for three-pointers, per Dunks & Threes. None of that necessarily spells success against a good defense.
Boston also plays at the 7th-slowest adjusted pace while the Kings have the 14th-quickest pace. There will be a conservative effort to slow this game down, and paired with concerning shot distributions, under 109.5 points for Sacramento is among our best bets.
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks
Under 225.0 Points (-110)
While the Oklahoma City Thunder against the New York Knicks features two top-eight teams in offensive rating, the 225-point total feels too inflated. Keep in mind the Thunder lead the Association in defensive rating, and the Knicks' could be without their leading scorer and rebounder Karl-Anthony Towns (25.3 PPG and 14.0 RPG), who is questionable with a knee injury.
The Knicks play at the sixth-slowest pace, and the Thunder give up the fourth-fewest field goal attempts per game. New York also sports the ninth-highest shot distribution around the rim. Of course, this goes down if Towns cannot go, for he takes 62.4% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket. OKC also boasts one of the best interior defenses, giving up the eighth-lowest shot distribution around the rim and the fewest points in the paint per game.
Total Points
On the other side of the court, the Thunder take the 11th-most three-point shots per game while touting the 16th-highest three-point shot distribution (their highest on offense). Defending the perimeter is New York's biggest strength on defense, surrendering the 13th-lowest shot distribution from deep while giving up the 10th-fewest three-point attempts per contest.
DRatings has this total reaching about 221.6 points, firmly making the under the best side. If Towns is held out, we have even more reason to back this line.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.