UFC Vegas 101 Best Bets: Dern vs. Ribas 2

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 101: Dern vs. Ribas 2, taking place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Betting Picks

Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden

Ogden to Win (+142)

Despite being an underdog in five of his six UFC bouts, Trey Ogden has collected four wins save the worst refereeing decision in UFC history. Can he best oddsmakers' expectations again here?

"Shamurai" gets it done with grappling, attempting 6.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing a passable clip of them (30%). He's never been taken down himself with a 57% striking D that's allowed him to see the end of all five bouts that didn't end in the officiating gaffe.

My model and I both see a clear-as-day path for him through Thiago Moises' 55% takedown defense. Moises' striking defense (54%) and success rate (-1.75 SSR) are both worse than Ogden's, too.

I've still got Moises modeled as a slight -115 favorite because of age and super level of competition, but this line of a wide is a bit preposterous when Ogden could spent plenty of time in control of the Brazilian.

Punahele Soriano vs. Uros Medic

Medic by KO/TKO (+145)

When Uros Medic wins in UFC, he wins one way.

Medic's five UFC wins have all comes via KO/TKO, and all but one came before the third round. "The Doctor" is usually pretty quick through his procedures, but both of his UFC losses have also been quick submissions.

He's a -220 favorite here, presumably, because Punahele Soriano has no career UFC submission attempts. Soriano dominated his welterweight debut over Miguel Baeza (3-4 UFC) with five takedowns and a +137 striking differential, but Medic's +2.33 SSR should still be well ahead of Soriano's (+1.01) at distance, and his 2.73% knockdown rate is massive. He's overcome takedowns to find the finish so long as he was able to avoid the sub.

My model stashes almost all of Medic's win equity into a (T)KO, modeling the outcome at 62.9% likely. I'm fine to just bet him in this market when, if he doesn't find it, his 55% takedown defense has probably undone his chance to win it.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris

Harris to Win (+112)
Harris by KO/TKO/Submission (+220)

This isn't UFC's best card to kick off 2025, but Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris have combined for a finish in 14 of their 24 bouts. The co-main should have action.

Attrition isn't on either man's side as Ponzi (38) and Harris (37) both enter approaching 40, but I'm picking the younger fighter to emerge from this matchup.

Harris' +0.52 SSR is superior to Ponzinibbio's (+0.19) at distance when he's fought some huge names like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Khaos Williams, and 2023 PFL champion Impa Kasanganay in a six-fight tenure. He's also presumably got the grappling upside in this fight, averaging 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes to the Argentinian's 0.59.

Strangely, the 18-fight veteran hasn't ever won or lost a UFC bout by submission. Harris' 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes could capitalize on that weakness.

I've got Harris 57.8% likely to win this fight, and 30.7% of the time, it comes inside the distance.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

Dern to Win (+154)

While there is not one skill I'd say Mackenzie Dern is better than Amanda Ribas in MMA, this betting line is still presumably too wide.

We saw that play out in these two's first fight in 2019 where Ribas won a unanimous decision with a +54 striking differential. The problem? Ribas is very much not a consistent fighter that's transitioned between 115 and 125 pounds at random.

There's been no rhythm to her weight class or results, trumping top-five strawweight contender Virna Jandiroba only to get knocked out by an aging Marina Rodriguez (7-6-1 UFC) that lost to Jandiroba comfortably.

Dern's strength is her physicality making it ugly. She attempts 5.5 takedowns per 16 minutes but lands so few of them (16%) that rounds are often fought in these close, uncomfortable margins.

Her distance striking seems to be heading in the right direction, though. Her -0.69 SSR outlanded Loopy Godinez (+1.13) in a fight that I thought she was destined to lose. Ribas (+1.23) is a similar matchup across the board analytically.

I've got this fight a true pick 'em. Ribas and Dern are both modeled 50.0% to win when rounded. That leaves no doubt as to the value side, and I wouldn't want to leave a submission or decision behind with an exact outcome.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.