3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/29/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Aaron Civale Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

It’s not lost on me how low this strikeout line is -- in fact, just about every strikeout line for tonight’s slate is lower than normal. If this is the case, why go with the under?

Well, quite frankly, at this late point in the season, under strikeout options are far more reliable than the alternative. We’ve already seen pitchers get shut down for the season, position players take the mound, and starters failing to surpass a 70-plus pitch count. It’s the nature of the meaningless games, and the under I have my eyes on is Aaron Civale opposite the Toronto Blue Jays.

After the Baltimore Orioles clinched the AL East division last night, the Tampa Bay Rays solidified their top AL Wild Card spot and will play Game 1 next Tuesday versus a to-be-determined squad. This game is the only thing on Tampa Bay’s mind, and they will use the last three regular-season games to enter this series with as many rested arms as they can.

Enter Civale, who I wouldn’t normally bet against on this under, but an amalgamation of reasons -- including the fact that he has no chance of being stretched-thin tonight -- make this a great option.

Civale has been a reliable pitcher for Tampa Bay, up until this month. He has a 3.43 ERA for the year, as opposed to his whopping 7.85 ERA in four September starts. He’s also in the midst of battling an undisclosed illness, which should give further credence to the fact that manager Kevin Cash won’t keep him on the mound for long tonight.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a right-handed dominant lineup, which is great news for the Civale under, given that his strikeout rate falls to 20.0% versus right-handed batters. Further, the Jays are one of the least strikeout-prone teams in the league, posting a 21.0% strikeout rate (25th).

All this, plus the added help that Toronto is still fighting to clinch a playoff spot and will go down swinging tonight, puts Civale in an excellent spot to hit this under.

Juan Soto To Hit A Home Run (+340)

The San Diego Padres have pretty much been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but Juan Soto didn’t hear no bell.

The Padres' slugger has been absolutely raking this month, posting a .344 batting average, .733 slugging percentage, 37.0% HR/FB ratio, and smashing in 10 home runs and five doubles.

Tonight, he will face Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox, and Soto should see some great opportunities to continue his hot streak.

The White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball. They’ve let up 767 earned runs this year (fifth-most in MLB) and allowed 214 home runs (fourth-most). Cease taking the mound tonight doesn’t help their case, especially against a hitter like Soto.

It is key to analyze matchups when looking at home run props. Given the lengthy season, Soto’s status as a 35-home run hitter isn’t nearly enough to justify this prop at +340. Luckily for the San Diego slugger -- and anyone eyeing him for tonight’s game -- he sees an incredibly advantageous matchup opposite Cease.

Cease’s numbers against left-handed batters are not good: he surrenders a .327 batting average on balls in play, .465 slugging percentage, 41.2% fly-ball rate, and 1.36 home runs per nine innings in the split. numberFire’s projections anticipate the Padres to hit 1.18 home runs in this matchup, and the numbers prove that the most likely four-bagger candidate is Soto.

Beyond Soto’s lights-out September performance and Cease’s noted struggles against lefties, Soto also enters the night with the advantage of facing a right-handed pitcher. He boasts a .281 batting average, .555 slugging percentage, 165 wRC+, 25.7% HR/FB ratio, and a 43.2% hard-hit rate in the split all while only striking out only 16.4% of the time.

Numbers aren’t foolproof, but if we are targeting a player to go yard tonight, I think Soto is far and away the best option.

Julio Rodriguez To Record 2+ Bases (-105)

The most momentous matchup on tonight’s slate comes with the Texas Rangers visiting their AL West rivals, the Seattle Mariners. Both teams are actively fighting for a playoff berth, and this is the only game tonight in which this is the case.

Though the Rangers lead the AL West by 2.0 games, they have a meh pitcher on the mound in Nathan Eovaldi, and the Mariners should see some excellent spots to capitalize on his recent woes.

Eovaldi has had a horrid September performance. In four starts, he posts a 7.41 ERA and has surrendered five home runs, a 29.4% HR/FB ratio, and a .340 batting average on balls in play.

Although we should keep in mind that Eovaldi's season-long numbers are solid, the trend is against him in a major way.

If we target a Seattle batter to eviscerate Eovaldi, it should be a righty. Eovaldi’s splits prove he struggles more against right-handed batters, allowing a .419 slugging percentage and .308 batting average on balls in play.

The Mariners' righty I have my eye on tonight is Julio Rodriguez.

J-Rod enters the night in the top-10 in baseball in doubles and top-20 in home runs. Further, he swanks a 20.0% HR/FB ratio, 126 wRC+, and .489 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitchers. He has mashed 15 extra-base hits this month and can deliver in this spot versus Eovaldi.

Given the lop-sided pitching matchups (Bryan Woo will take the mound for Seattle), I think the Mariners have the edge in this game. They will need all the help they can get as they try to crawl back into the AL Wild Card race (Seattle currently stands a game behind the Houston Astros), and Rodriguez should have the ability to get them going early.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.