3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Friday 8/4/23

Value is king for DFS, and finding a diamond in the rough can be the ultimate difference-maker.

For hitters, we want players with the capacity to put up big numbers, favorable matchups, and a supporting cast that can increase their chances for runs and RBI. Looking at pitchers, strikeouts are king -- although, inning-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

Let's look at some of the top value plays for Friday's main slate on FanDuel.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Logan Allen, P, Cleveland Guardians ($8,800)

Cleveland Guardians' rookie Logan Allen has a great matchup and carries a feasible salary tonight.

The southpaw toes the rubber against a Chicago White Sox active roster that ranks just 23rd in wOBA against lefties. In that same split, the White Sox are striking out at the eighth-highest clip (23.4%) and registering hard-hit balls at the fifth-lowest rate (30.0%).

That bodes well for Allen, a pitcher who's put together a solid 4.25 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 23.1% strikeout rate through his first 15 major league starts. Rookie pitchers can be wildly inconsistent, and although Allen is no different, he's shown the ability to be a serviceable DFS pitcher, totaling five starts of at least 30 FanDuel points.

While Allen has given up nine runs across his last two starts, he lasted at least 6.0 innings in both outings -- giving him a high floor for fantasy production.

numberFire projects Allen for 32.0 FanDuel points tonight -- the fourth-highest projection among tonight's starters and the highest among pitchers salaried under $9,000.

Considering that Chicago's 3.85 implied team total is tied for the second-lowest of the slate, Allen should feast -- making him a top value play tonight.

Brandon Marsh, OF, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,700)

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh slots in as a top value play tonight thanks to a combination of a consumer-friendly salary and hitter-friendly matchup. Marsh and the Phillies play host to the Kansas City Royals' Jordan Lyles.

A righty, Lyles has been one of the best matchups to target in DFS this season. For the year, Lyles owns a 5.15 SIERA and a measly 16.7% strikeout rate -- numbers that lend themselves to strong offensive outings for his opponents.

Consequently, the Phillies have the second-highest implied team total of the slate at 5.39 runs.

That should open up a ton of run-scoring opportunities for Marsh, especially considering his prowess against right-handed pitching.

While Marsh's overall numbers are solid enough on their own, he's been one of the most effective hitters in the league against righties. In that split, Marsh owns a shining .374 wOBA.

He's particularly thrived against fastballs -- Lyles' most-used pitch. Against four-seamers this season, Marsh has posted a Run Value of 9 and a .425 wOBA, per Statcast.

numberFire projects Marsh for 9.4 FanDuel points tonight. Considering his salary and plus matchup, he's a top value on this slate and a low-salary addition to Philly stacks.

Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies ($2,400)

We're digging into the bargain bin for the last value play of the slate with Brendan Rodgers and his $2,400 salary.

The low salary has nothing to do with his talent but has more to do with the fact that tonight will be only his fourth game of the year. Rodgers missed the first fourth months of the season recovering from a shoulder injury.

Although Rodgers racked up just two hits in his first series, he has already registered five hard-hit balls in his first 13 at-bats. That, coupled with his 2022 performance and tonight's juicy matchup, could have Rodgers primed for a breakout.

Last season, Rodgers recorded a .321 wOBA while striking out just 17.4% of the time. He also saw a noticeable uptick in his hard-hit rate -- up to 45.9%.

Tonight, Rodgers and the Colorado Rockies face off against the St. Louis Cardinals' Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been a shell of his former self this season, compiling a career-worst 5.76 SIERA and an 11.3% strikeout rate.

Even though the surrounding lineup isn't great, the Rockies still have an implied team total of 4.16. While numberFire projects Rodgers for just 8.3 FanDuel points, the matchup makes him a nice value play as he begins to round into form.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.