3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 9/20/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jorge Soler to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Although Miami Marlins righty Valente Bellozo has managed to put up a 3.70 ERA across 11 MLB starts this season, everything about his profile screams regression.

Bellozo has logged a 5.46 xFIP and 5.08 xERA without generating much in the way of strikeouts (15.6% K rate) or grounders (29.6% GB rate). He's also been giving up a ton of load contact, sitting in the 25th percentile for hard-hit rate and 8th percentile for barrel rate.

Despite somehow dodging all those poor metrics in ERA, Bellozo hasn't been nearly as lucky in the home run department. He's coughed up 1.85 HR/9 and has allowed multiple round-trippers in three of his last six starts.

Bellozo has also been more vulnerable to the long ball versus righties. In same-handed matchups, he's giving up 2.12 HR/9 alongside a 6.03 xFIP, 13.8% strikeout rate, and 56.6% fly-ball rate.

This Atlanta Braves lineup still packs some punch in spite of all the injuries its endured, and Jorge Soler is a strong candidate to punish Bellozo.

Soler has put up a rock-solid batted ball numbers this year, including an 85th percentile barrel rate and 92nd percentile maximum exit velocity. He's also saved his best work with Atlanta, as he's posted a .254 ISO since the trade compared to a .179 ISO before it. The righty slugger has hit a home run in three of his last seven games, so he could be facing Bellozo at just the right time, too.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Rookie right-hander Mason Black struggled in his first MLB stint with the San Francisco Giants back in May, and since getting called back up at the end of August, it's been more of the same. Overall, he's amassed a 6.71 xERA and 18.5% strikeout rate across six starts and a relief appearance.

Of course, what really interests us here is Black's issues with keeping the ball in the park. He's allowed a dinger in all seven of his outings, giving up 2.25 HR/9 off a 47.9% fly-ball rate. Black has 11 barrels against him off just 94 batted balls (11.7%), which would put him in the third percentile for barrel rate if he qualified.

If we're looking for a Kansas City Royals batter to add to that home run tally, it's hard to ignore Bobby Witt Jr. at these odds.

Witt enters Friday with 32 home runs and a .267 ISO, and it's all backed by high marks in xSLG (98th percentile), average exit velocity (94th percentile), and barrel rate (93rd percentile). The Royals star has slugged two bombs over his last five games, and he has a great chance get another tonight.

Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+480)

There were signs of Justin Verlander's decline last season when he saw a significant dip in strikeouts, but he still managed to have a successful campaign. That certainly hasn't been the case in 2024, and it looks like the 41-year-old is finally starting to run out of gas.

While Verlander has managed an encouraging hard-hit rate (86th percentile), he's still giving up his fair share of barrels (44th percentile), which is the result of him posting low marks in strikeout rate (18.7%) and ground-ball rate (27.3%). This has led to 1.58 HR/9, a mark that's leaps and bounds above his career average (0.94).

Verlander has been particularly ineffective since returning from the injured list in August. Over his last five starts, he's recorded a 5.87 xFIP and 13.0% K rate while allowing 3 home runs.

The Los Angeles Angels don't have the most imposing lineup, but this will be Verlander's second straight start against them, and he managed just two punchouts in five innings the last time. While this game doesn't have a notable total (8.0), and the Angels are pretty big underdogs, I like these longer odds we're getting for Taylor Ward to knock one out.

Ward has 25 dingers on the resume this season, and he's rocking an 89th percentile barrel rate and 84th percentile xSLG. He homered just last night and has gone yard nine times over the last 30 days with a .330 ISO. Ward looks to be finishing his campaign on a high note, and with him getting a second look at Verlander in less than a week, he has a good shot of adding one more dinger to his stat line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.