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3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Yankees at Guardians, Game 5

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Yankees at Guardians, Game 5

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Moneyline (+104)

Moneyline

Cleveland Guardians
Oct 20 12:09am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Cleveland, this is for you.

As the baseball universe is hurdling toward the impending doom of a New York Yankees-Los Angeles Dodgers matchup in the World Series, I'll project the Cleveland Guardians to stave off elimination in their building tonight.

BABIP-related activities doomed Tanner Bibee more than anything in his Game 2 start where he was chased after just four outs. Bibee's outings have never made it out of the fifth this postseason, putting the ball overwhelmingly in the hands of a Cleveland bullpen that I largely trust despite the Yanks' Game 4 comeback. Their 3.67 xFIP was second-best in MLB this season. It seems like a spot to buy low on those efforts.

We'll discuss some factors as to whether Carlos Rodon can keep it rolling or not on his side, too.

If Cleveland had hung onto last night's affair, they're probably slight favorites in tonight's game. numberFire projects the Guards take this one at home 52.3% of the time, so sign me up for plus coin.

Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Carlos Rodon - Strikeouts

Carlos Rodon Under
Oct 20 12:09am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

As mentioned, New York starter Carlos Rodon has defied at least what I've expected from him in October given how his entire season has gone.

The lefty's campaign was rocky. He allowed 1.59 HR/9 overall on the basis of elevated flyball (49.4%) and hard-hit (40.7%) rates allowed. I've targeted the guy for dinger props. Once the lights have shined brightest, he's been masterful...but is it a bit lucky?

His NLDS start came against the Kansas City Royals, sporting a pitiful 20 wRC+ in the regular season against southpaws after the calendar turned to September. Cleveland (153) was the very best team in baseball in that category, yet Rodon survived nine flyballs to post a quality start with 9 Ks -- out of nowhere -- in Game 1 of this series.

If there's a spot where the shakier side of Rodon would come to roost, it's likely this desperate Guardians team.

On the back of a shorter-than-anticipated outing, our daily MLB projections expect just 5.13 Ks from him today. That's fewer than Bibee; the under is the side.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+500)

To Hit A Home Run
Jose Ramirez

If the stars are going to align for Rodon to regress to a flyball machine and keep Cleveland alive, it's got to be on the back of the team's folk hero, right?

Ramirez flied out once and lined out twice in three trips to the dish against Rodon in Game 1, making excellent contact. That's a great sign that he can seal the deal in Game 5 when the Guardians need him.

If there's a guy that you'd forecast for a stray homer against a lefty from the team, it's still J-Ram. No one on the team comes close to matching Ramirez's 1.081 OPS, .348 ISO, 45.6% flyball, and 43.0% hard-hit rate across 179 plate appearances this season.

Cleveland's third baseman hasn't homered off a starter in the playoffs yet, but we know he's not one to go down without a fight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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