3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Tigers at Guardians, Game 5

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Under 6.0 Runs (-120)
Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

This exact pitching matchup went into the ninth inning scoreless on Monday, so it's no "hot take" to expect another duel on Saturday.

That's because these teams, when sending out these southpaws, are primed to struggle. The Cleveland Guardians or anyone will struggle to mount any offense off AL Cy Young run-away favorite Tarik Skubal, who is now 13 innings deep into his postseason career and still sports a perfect 0.00 ERA. Skubal's 2.17 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) suggests that's not going much higher anytime soon.

However, Matt Boyd can keep pace in this specific matchup. In the last 30 days including postseason metrics, the Detroit Tigers' 74 wRC+ and 33.6% strikeout rate against lefties are both bottom-10 marks in baseball as a playoff squad. Boyd struck out five over 4.2 scoreless innings on Monday, but even with a short leash if any struggles arise, I'm okay turning to his strikeout prop when the Stripes have been such free swingers.

As the game potentially transitions to the bullpen, the reliever xFIPs for Detroit (3.66) and Cleveland (3.62) over the past month are outstanding, and Progressive Field was MLB's eighth-friendliest park to pitchers this season. There's not a lot of data suggesting Saturday's winner-take-all affair will see many more runs than Monday's Game 2, which finished 3-0.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Lane Thomas to Hit a Home Run (+680)

One of the most difficult assignments I've ever gotten at FanDuel Research was to dig up a potential home run bet for this one where a run at all could be tough to muster. Keep that in mind before plunging into this market.

However, if there's a favorite to go deep in today's game at all, it should be Cleveland's Lane Thomas. He's making the contact you'd hope to see against both splits, which is important given the increase in potential for a bomb in the bullpens on Saturday.

Against lefties like Skubal, Thomas has amassed a 1.375 OPS, .500 ISO, 60.0% flyball rate, and 40.0% hard-hit rate over the last 30 days. That's only 10 plate appearances (PAs), though. Against righties in this time, he's totaled a .576 OPS, .200 ISO, 37.1% flyball rate, and 37.1% hard-hit rate over 52 PAs. That's the best combination of average hard contact in the air against both splits in this contest.

Thomas homered in Game 1, and there's at least inherent value that his contact splits against both types of pitchers are a significantly better balance than what you get from Jose Ramirez or Spencer Torkelson at shorter odds in the market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.