3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 7/31/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros

Pirates Over 3.5 Runs (+106)

The over has been a consistent producer for the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Houston Astros over the last 10 head-to-head matchups, carrying a 6-3-1 record. Plus, Pittsburgh's batting order has hit their stride, making their total line very intriguing.

The Pirates could have their toughest test yet for this series as Houston will start the two-time All-Star Framber Valdez. Still, Pittsburgh is in a great spot to pull off the sweep with 5.0 runs per game over their previous six contests, which is well above their season average of 4.18 (10th-fewest).

Slugging has been a strong suit during the stretch with the Pirates totaling five home runs over the last five contests. While this is still in line with their season average of 1.0 homers per contest, the consistency is key. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh had only three dingers over a 12-game stretch from July 10th to July 26th.

Valdez touts solid numbers, including a 3.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.67 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Giving up hard hits has been a major problem, though. The Astros' starter ranks in the bottom 2% of average exit velocity and bottom 3% of hard-hit percentage.

The Pirates' numbers also spike against lefties, carrying a .245 batting average and .310 wOBA compared to .227 and .288 versus right-handed hurlers.

Additionally, numberFire's daily game projections has Pittsburgh forecasted for 3.79 runs. The proof is in the pudding; the Pirates' order is gearing up for more success.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Padres Moneyline (-130)

After throwing the first no-hitter of his career on July 25th, Dylan Cease will be on the mound against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

Cease has pieced together one of the best three-game stretches for a starter in MLB history, giving up a total of two hits over three starts and 22.0 innings pitched. This even made history with Cease becoming the first pitcher since at least 1901 to pitch for at least six innings while allowing one or fewer hits in three straight starts.

This pick could simply boil down to one thing; it's difficult to go against the San Diego Padres with Cease on the rubber right now. We can go a little deeper into this, though.

The Padres have won 7 of the last 10 head-to-head matchups paired with a 6-3 record this season. Cease has also posted a 1.80 ERA over two career starts against the Dodgers.

While Clayton Kershaw is usually a scary sight, he's still getting his feet wet with his second appearance of the season. He recorded only 72 pitches in his first; another pitch count could be imminent.

numberFire's projections is giving San Diego a 56.25% chance to win outright, and the implied probability for -130 odds is 56.5%. Projections are slightly taking the side of the Padres, as well.

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants

Over 7.5 Runs (-110)

The Oakland Athletics average the 9th-fewest runs per game while the San Francisco Giants have the 16th-lowest mark in the category. This matchup doesn't suggest we'll see many runs, but recent production says otherwise.

The A's are 7-3 over their last 10 games while averaging 5.1 runs per game during the span (season average is 4.17). The Giants also posted 5.4 runs per game over their previous five (season average is 4.39).

Ross Stripling and Logan Webb will be the starting pitchers, providing even more support for over 7.5 runs. Stripling has been dreadful this season with a 6.02 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.86 SIERA, and 4.56 xFIP. Not much has changed with Stripling stumbling to a 9.43 ERA with opponents batting .381 over his previous five outings.

While Webb's season stats (3.60 SIERA; 3.30 xFIP) are much better than Stripling's, San Fran's starter has also struggled in recent appearances. July has been a month to forgot as Webb is carrying a 6.65 ERA while opponents are raking .344 over four outings this month.

Each batting order has been producing above their season averages and will face struggling starters tonight. This one isn't rocket science; give me over 7.5 runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.