3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 7/24/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Under 7.0 (-105)

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians have gone over in the first two games of this four-game series. However, Game 3 provides a high-quality starting pitch matchup between Jack Flaherty and Tanner Bibee.

Flaherty holds a 2.45 ERA over six starts since June. The advanced stats back it up, too. Among starting hurlers who have pitched in at least 50 innings this season, Flaherty has the third-lowest SIERA in baseball (2.59).

We saw Flaherty take the mound versus Cleveland in a head-to-head matchup on July 11th, holding the Guardians to only two hits and one earned run over six innings pitched. He's got a 2.89 career ERA over five meetings with Cleveland.

July hasn't been as kind to Bibee, who has a 4.15 ERA compared to his season-long mark of 3.58. However, opponents are still only batting .213 against Bibee during this month.

Detroit's batting order has been living in the limelight, totaling 6.1 runs per over their last 10 games (season-long mark is 4.32). An increase in power hitting has played a big role with the Tigers smacking 1.57 home runs per game over their previous seven compared to their season average of 1.04.

Bibee has the answer for this, though, as he sits in the top 24% for lowest hard-hit percentage allowed and has given up only one dinger this month. Detroit is also outside the top half in runs above average against Bibee's most-used pitches -- four-seam fastball and slide.

Ultimately, I trust the starting pitchers in this matchup, leading to under seven runs scored.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Nationals Moneyline (-102)

The San Diego Padres' worst nightmare is coming true tonight as the Washington Nationals will put a left-handed starter on the mound.

While the Padres tout the 2nd-highest batting average and 11th-highest wOBA in baseball, their numbers take a huge dive down an abyss when seeing lefties. San Diego holds the 10th-lowest batting average and 9th-lowest wOBA against southpaws.

This should give Washington's Mitchell Parker a very favorable matchup. The rookie has impressed in a full-time starting role, carrying a 3.90 ERA and 1.137 WHIP over 17 starts. The advanced metrics aren't quite as impressive (4.10 SIERA; 3.99 xFIP) but are still solid.

The Nats' lefty is still plenty good enough to take advantage of the Padres' weakness. San Diego is outside the top 10 in runs above average against four seamers and curveballs -- Mitchell's must-used tools.

After being favored in their last two games, Washington is back in the underdog role for tonight. The Nationals have won four of their last five games as underdogs. With a lefty on the mound against the Padres, the -102 moneyline odds look favorable.

New York Mets at New York Yankees

First 5 Innings Over 4.5 (-108)

Let's round out our best bets of the day with the Subway Series. Game 1 was a low-scoring affair with the New York Mets coming out on top 3-2.

Wednesday's clash looks to have another solid pitching matchup between Sean Manaea and Gerrit Cole, the reigning Cy Young winner. However, I'm expecting this to go in the opposite direction.

Cole has cracks in his armor as he didn't make his season debut until about one month ago. Opponents are batting .269 against the New York Yankees' ace this month.

To make matters worse, Cole has a 6.64 career ERA over eight appearances versus the Mets. Over Cole's previous five outings against the intercity rival, he's surrendered 11 home runs. The Mets still have the juice for lift off, carrying the fifth-highest home run percentage, sixth-highest isolated power (ISO), and seventh-highest slugging percentage (SLG).

This is exactly what happened in the only meeting between Cole and the Mets this season, with the former Cy Young winner seeing four balls go over the fence.

Following two exceptional starts to begin July, Manaea has a 6.00 ERA over his previous two starts.

The Yanks having success against him could be the most tricky part to going over 4.5 runs in the first five innings. The Yankees have the 7th-fewest runs scored and the 14th-lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers.

Power hitting could be the solution as Manaea has given up three homers over his last two outings and is in the bottom 30% in hard-hit percentage. But the Yankees have the seventh-lowest SLG when seeing southpaws.

Which side will give?

The Mets' success against Cole still provides enough confidence for me to back this line. The Yankees, who have the most runs scored in MLB, still have plenty of firepower to potentially expose Manaea's recent struggles, and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium could aid us, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.