3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 8/27/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-111)

The Pittsburgh Pirates could be in trouble tonight with Justin Steele set to take the mound for the opposing Chicago Cubs.

While his name is currently spared from the NL Cy Young market, Steele has some of the best underlying numbers in baseball. He enters the night with a 3.07 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA, 2.75 xERA, and he allows a mere 0.80 home runs per nine innings.

That 2.75 xERA is the third-best mark in MLB, and only 10 pitchers in the majors allow fewer homers per nine than Steele. A power-resistant pitcher who has one of the best expected run averages in the league? That reads like somebody who is capable of shutting up the Pirates.

Pittsburgh produces a .245 BA (17th), .394 SLG (17th), .308 wOBA (18th), and 96 wRC+ (20th) versus left-handed pitchers. They've hit the sixth-fewest dingers in baseball, and their offense doesn't know what a home bump looks like, struggling with a .296 wOBA (fourth-worst in MLB) at PNC Park.

The Pirates have scored under 3.5 runs in 45.0% of their games, so it's a fairly common occurrence for them to fall below this mark. Add in the Steele of it all, and I like the value on the under. Steele and Chicago's bullpen have limited opponents to under 3.5 runs in 11 of his last 14 starts.

San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers

Under 7.5 Runs (-102)

The San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers meet up this evening and might just be able to put on a pitching clinic.

Logan Webb will be on the bump for San Fran. He owns a 3.13 ERA, 4.08 xERA, 3.24 xFIP, and 3.58 SIERA. His xERA shows he's encountered a bit of luck, and a tiny 6.0% home run to fly ball ratio affirms that. So, perhaps Webb's league-best 0.36 home runs per nine metric is a tad forgiving, but it's still dominant.

He forces a meaty 56.1% ground ball rate, the third-highest mark in MLB. I feel good backing a normal night for Webb against a Milwaukee lineup that hasn't really seen him before.

The home team will send out Tobias Myers in this one. The NL rookie conversation has been dominated by Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill, which is probably why we aren't hearing Myers' name as often. But make no mistake: the first-year thrower has been great for Milwaukee.

Since June 1st, Myers has managed a 2.00 ERA through 76 2/3 frames. That's good for the best qualified ERA in baseball, even better than the aforementioned Skenes. ERA alone isn't everything, and Myers' 4.11 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA prove that it hasn't been a total fairytale year for him.

Even still, he has his stuff right now and will draw a friendly matchup against the Giants. San Francisco manages just a .384 SLG (22nd) and .300 wOBA (20th) opposite northpaws.

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

Yankees Over 5.5 Runs (-106)

Asking a team to score six-plus runs seems like a bit of a tall task, but it doesn't seem that dramatic of an ask once we remember that the New York Yankees are averaging 5.11 runs per game, the second-most in MLB. They're also collecting a league-high 5.40 runs on the road, so the offense could come out to play at Nationals Park tonight.

But the main reason to back the Yankees here? Patrick Corbin will be on the mound for the Washington Nationals. Corbin comes in with a 5.73 ERA and 5.82 xERA, the worst marks among all eligible pitchers in MLB. His 4.55 SIERA serves as the seventh-worst mark, and he serves up a .379 wOBA, .528 SLG, and 1.45 homers per nine to righties.

It's no wonder why Aaron Judge has laughable +154 odds to hit a home run tonight while Giancarlo Stanton has similarly short +220 odds in this market.

Judge and Stanton are set up to mash in this matchup, and Corbin's 1.54 WHIP could afford New York's third and fourth batters to walk to the plate with runners in scoring position.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.