3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 7/30/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Moneyline (-112)

The Philadelphia Phillies (65-41) will look to even things up with the New York Yankees (63-45) after the Pinstripes took home yesterday's battle with a resounding 14-4 victory.

With a reliable hurler in Aaron Nola on the mound for Philadelphia and a more vulnerable version of Gerrit Cole on the bump for New York, I'll side with the Phillies.

Nola comes in with a 3.44 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 3.38 xFIP, and 3.60 SIERA. He can thank the Boston Red Sox for one nightmare start (8 ER in 3 2/3 IP) but has been solid in just about every other game. Plus, in seven starts since that game against Boston, Nola is shining with a 2.80 xFIP, 2.93 SIERA, and a 28.2% K%.

He enters this one with great momentum, and the Phillies have gone 15-6 in his starts. Yes, he'll take on a Yankees lineup that dominates righties to the tune of a .257 BA (4th-best in MLB) and .343 wOBA (best), but they rank 12th and 4th, respectively, in those stats across the last 30 days of play.

Cole has pitched seven games this season since being activated off the IL due to an elbow injury. He's shown flashes of dominance but still looks like a shell of last year's AL Cy Young winner. All in all, he owns a 5.40 ERA, 4.65 xERA, and 4.28 xFIP through 35 frames.

He's also surrendered 2.31 home runs per nine innings. This ugly mark will even out once we get a more voluminous sample, but it is concerning that he let up a whopping seven home runs through just 9 2/3 IP in two starts against the New York Mets. There's a reason Kyle Schwarber has +250 odds to hit a home run tonight.

On the season, Philadelphia sports a .251 BA (8th), .319 wOBA (10th), and .413 SLG (10th) against right-handed pitchers.

If you're interested in getting in on more of the action here, FanDuel Sportsbook has Yankees-Phillies Series Props available.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

White Sox Under 3.5 Runs (-118)

It's a favorite pastime of mine to beat up on the Chicago White Sox (27-82), and with Michael Wacha set to take the mound for the opposing Kansas City Royals, we have a great opportunity to do just that.

The White Sox are producing a .215 BA (worst in MLB), .340 SLG (worst), .270 wOBA (worst), 72 wRC+ (worst), and .125 ISO (worst) versus right-handed pitchers. It's been all bad news for Chicago, a team that is averaging just 3.07 runs per game (lowest in MLB).

Chicago has somehow scored under 3.5 runs in 70 out of 109 games, including 13 of their last 15 games (!!!). These -118 odds imply a 54.1% probability, but Chicago has recorded less than 3.5 runs in 64.2% of games this season.

We're getting friendly odds here, and our confidence should rise with Wacha on the mound. This season, Wacha owns a 3.65 ERA, 4.06 xERA, 4.08 xFIP, and allows just 1.07 home runs per nine innings.

Across his last 10 starts, Wacha has dominated with a 2.51 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, and 1.05 WHIP. Kansas City's relief isn't great, but they limit opponents to just 0.92 homers per nine (tied for seventh-lowest). Plus, Wacha should go long enough to ensure that we see only the best arms out of KC's bullpen.

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 9.5 Runs (+102)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a weak lefty tonight, making for a logical spot to target an over.

The D-Backs generate a .274 BA (2nd-best in MLB), .425 SLG (10th), .331 wOBA (7th), and 113 wRC+ (8th) versus left-handed pitchers. They should have no trouble cutting up Patrick Corbin, one of the lowest-performing starters in baseball.

Corbin's 5.85 xERA is the worst mark in MLB among eligible starters. He also has an MLB-worst 1.42 WHIP and a 4.59 SIERA that is the eighth-worst in the majors.

The Nats could come alive against Ryne Nelson, too. Nelson struggles with a 4.85 ERA, 4.38 xERA, 4.41 xFIP, and 4.51 SIERA. Washington is average against righties, ranking 14th in BA, 14th in OBP, 16th in wOBA, and 17th in wRC+.

However, while we should expect larger scoring contributions from Arizona's offense, the Nationals are great on the basepaths. They've stolen a towering 147 bags (second-most) this season. For context, the team that ranks fifth in stolen bases has nabbed just 99. Washington could exploit Nelson's ugly 1.41 WHIP, which is the ninth-worst mark in MLB among hurlers who have thrown at least 90 frames.

On top of all that, both bullpens are meh. Washington ranks 17th in SIERA and 22nd in WHIP while Arizona ranks 26th in SIERA and 26th in WHIP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.