3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 7/11/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, 6:06 p.m. ET

Phillies -1.5 (+138)

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies conclude their three-game series tonight. The Phillies have taken the first two games, and they're well-positioned to complete the sweep tonight.

I'm reluctant to play their moneyline at -148 odds, but with Aaron Nola on the bump, I'll jump on Philly's +140 odds to cover -1.5 runs.

Nola has put together another strong year, pitching to a 3.48 ERA to go along with a 1.03 WHIP. Though his K rate (23.8%) is down from last season, he's upped his ground-ball rate to 45.3% and has allowed just a 6.3% barrel rate. That's resulted in solid ERA indicators, including a 3.58 SIERA and 3.35 xFIP.

The Dodgers have stellar numbers against righties for the season, but they've taken a slight step back since Mookie Betts went down on June 16th. Over that stretch, they've dipped from second to ninth in wOBA and third to seventh in wRC+.

In that same sample, the Phillies lead the league in wOBA (.356) and rank second in wRC+ (131) against righties. That puts them in a nice spot to hang runs on LA starter, Landon Knack.

The rookie has pitched well for the most part, but he was tagged for four runs across 4 1/3 innings his last time out. His ERA (2.86) is still strong, but a 4.12 SIERA and 4.29 xFIP suggest he's punched over his weight thus far.

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Astros -1.5 (+110)

Bullpen games aren't typical spots where I'm looking to lay 1.5 runs with any team, but today's an exception.

That's because the Miami Marlins are on the road against the Houston Astros. This is the third and final game of the series, with Houston having already won the first two.

Righty Jake Bloss will make his return from IL tonight. This is only his second MLB game, but Bloss notably registered a 1.61 ERA across eight Double-A appearances this season.

Bloss is in a nice spot against a Marlins side that has the third-lowest wRC+ (81) and second-lowest wOBA (.282) against righties. Even if Bloss can't go more than a few innings, names like Bryan Abreu (3.78 xFIP), Ryan Pressly (3.05), and Josh Hader (2.39) are about as good as they come in relief.

But the biggest reason we can buy into Houston covering is their offense. The Astros are top-10 in wOBA (.326) and wRC+ (113) against righties this season, and their matchup doesn't get much better than Miami's Roddery Munoz.

The right-handed Munoz has pitched to a 5.48 ERA with a 12.3% walk rate and 48.5% fly-ball rate across nine appearances. Throw in a 13.1% barrel rate allowed, and it's easy to see why his xFIP (5.15) and SIERA (5.01) are subpar.

numberFire's MLB projections have the Astros winning by a score of 5.60 to 4.21. The model projects Houston to cover 50.1% of the time -- up from the 47.6% implied odds we get from their +110 odds.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks Moneyline (+100)

I hate to fade Max Fried, but it's hard to ignore the Arizona Diamondbacks as +100 home underdogs, especially against a lefty.

Fried continues to thrive despite a lackluster K rate (21.2%), pitching to a 3.18 ERA through 17 starts. He's still forcing groundballs at an absurd clip (58.6%), but his walk (7.5%) and barrel rates (5.1%) are both up from last season. That's played a role in his 3.68 SIERA -- Fried's highest in the last three seasons.

He's still been good, but we've seen more cracks in his armor than in years past. That was especially true in an earlier matchup with Arizona when the D-backs pelted him for 10 hits and eight runs across 4 1/3 innings.

Success against lefties is nothing new for Arizona. In that split, the Diamondbacks rank fifth in both wOBA (.336) and wRC+ (118). Consequently, they stand a good shot at getting to Fried for the second time this season.

So, we just need Brandon Pfaadt to hold up against a worse-than-you'd-expect Atlanta Braves lineup.

Pfaadt enters Thursday with a 4.19 ERA, but the underlying numbers are solid. His ERA indicators -- 3.51 xERA, 3.80 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA -- suggest his results have been worse than he's actually performed. He continues to limit walks (5.8% BB%) and has given up just two runs over his last two starts.

The Braves are scary on paper, but they're quietly just 19th in wOBA (.304) and 20th in wRC+ (94) against righties this season.

Though they've taken the first two games of this series, the Diamondbacks are in a good spot to salvage the series and come out ahead as +100 underdogs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.